Monday, November 20, 2017

Bonds may not be a good buy for a while

Bond had a good run until October 2016
"The end of the bull market in bonds came in October last year. Rates have been rising for over a year now. Volume is coming on the down side. That is a material difference.
Clearly I don’t want to own the longer end of the curve. You will not want to own it for many years in the future. Probably two decades."

Stock market correction within next three years could help Bond bulls for a short time.
"We will get a material bear market in equities in the next three years. And you will wish you went to hide in the bond market for some small amount of time.
At this point in time, I’m not paying attention to the diversification element. Do I want to own bonds now? The answer is no.”

via www.wealthmanagement.com/fixed-income/should-investors-buy-bonds-today 

Monday, November 13, 2017

Saudi shakeup led to muted response in the oil market




"You may get another dollar or 2 upfront in the front months just because of the confusion. But in the long run, this is terribly detrimental to crude oil prices. 

Over the weekend, it had barely moved, and I thought that was fascinating that crude oil didn't move much at all. If this had occurred five years ago, crude oil would have been $5, $6, $7, $8, $9 higher in the course of two days. Instead it took a $2 or $3 barrel higher and it seems to be stalling.

Is Saudi Arabia losing its position of authority? Absolutely. The game has changed dramatically."


via https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/saudi-shakeup-is-terribly-detrimental-to-oil-prices-dennis-gartman.html

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

The market could surge higher in the short term

With the markets continuing to make new all time highs, many investors are cheering but Dennis Gartman is not one of the stock market bull cheerleaders,

"....We fear that we are about to enter that violent… and ending… rush to the upside that has ended so many great bull markets of the past. At this point, the buying becomes manic and prices head skyward. Speculation is the order of the day, not investment and when such periods have erupted in the past prices have gone parabolic until such time as the last bears have been brought to heel and the public has thrown investment caution to the wind. We’re there now; this may become wild."

via zerohedge

Monday, October 16, 2017

Gold is still in a Bull Market even in US Dollar terms

"The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary. Gold has been rallying in dollar terms. It has been a bull market since December. And it is still a bull market. The last rally took us from $1,200 to $1,370. And the fact that we are now below $1,300 is relatively inconsequential.

If you are not long, you should use this weakness we have had in the past two weeks to be a buyer, no question.

Gold will be demonstrably higher then where it is right now. $1,400 is a reasonable expectation. I am not a gold bug. I don't believe the world is going to come to an end. I don't think you own gold because you think governments are going to be collapsing around the world."


On the potential for upcoming Fed Rate Hikes 

"[Rate Hikes] is going to take five or six years. This is not something that will occur overnight."