Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 30, 2013
Whats the best trade idea for 2014 ?
The answer according to well known investor Dennis Gartman is....
"Continuing to be short of yen against the English-speaking currencies—selling yen against sterling, selling yen against the U.S. dollar, selling yen against the Canadian dollar—I think that's going to be the great trade of 2014"
Thursday, December 26, 2013
"Within seconds of the announcement... I had no choice - I had to come in and buy more stocks and reduce any hedges I had and make certain that the long positions I had in the dollar, I've been very bearish on the yen -- were increased."
There was no question an abundant part of yesterday's panic buying [was due to] people saying 'Oh my word I'm short, I'm wrong and I have to get out'...Some of the smartest guys I know have been short the market all the way up and I've seen more of that than people being long the market.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
"I thought it would be deferred and put into the hands of the next Fed chairman [Janet Yellen] at the March meeting."
Monday, December 23, 2013
But I never actually thought they'd move to reduce the speed with which we're driving down the highway."
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Investors must continue to obey the charts. Dennis Gartman believes the rally in stocks will continue, and he draws upon his years of trading experience to make that determination.
"I will simply use an old man's view of the market, and say it's been moving from the lower left to the upper right," the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter said on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "Weakness has been properly purchased and strength has been improperly sold. It will continue to go up until the trend lines are broken—and right now they are far from being broken."
"Write this down: 'It will continue to go up until it stops. I've only been at this 40 years, but I'm constantly amused by attempts to discern where the top shall be, or conversely, where the bottom shall be. Stocks stop going down when they stop. Stocks stop going up when they stop. That's the best you can do."
On Higher Treasury Yields
"I've been at this for a long time. I remember trading the 30-year [bond] with a 14.25 coupon. So does 2.85 on the 10-year, does 3 percent on the 10-year, does even 4 percent on the 10-year frighten me? Not really," he said. "So that's just a perspective of history."
On the S&P500 year 2013 target price
"I suspect that the propensity to take [stocks] to new highs is probably limited. ... I suspect that the propensity to try to sell it down from current levels is limited," Gartman said. "I wouldn't be surprised if they closed exactly where they are right now."
Monday, December 16, 2013
Dennis Gartman, is looking for the weak trend to continue. He tells clients in last week’s Gartman Letter he’s looking for a move to 112-115 per dollar, a level not seen since late 2007:
There will be many who argue … with some very real justification … that this trade is crowded. It is. We shall admit that fact, but we also have the Central Bank at our back; we have the trend at our back; we have profits at our back, and those on the other side have none of the above. We’ll take our chances with the trend. It has served us well thus far.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Top five trades to close out the year.
5. Short U.S. Treasurys
"I want to be short the U.S. bond market," he said on CNBC's "Fast Money." While Gartman said that he had taken off his short position on Monday, he added, "You give me a point and a half rally on the long end, I'm selling the long end of the market."
4. Own metals
"I want to own copper. I want to own steel. I want to own railroads. I want to own ships," Gartman said. "The very basic plumbing of basic economic growth. Old story, it's a good story. It's a been a story that has worked for a long period of time. It's a simple story." The industrials play is a bet on growth, he said, pointing out that China held potential.
"This is a very clear, rational bet on global growth," he said. "No question about that." The underlying assets are attractive, Gartman added.
3. Long the Nikkei
"It's being long of the equities market predicated upon the fact that the Bank of Japan is expanding its reserves even more aggressively than has been the Fed," Gartman said. "It's going to continue. It has no choice. Mr. Abe has three arrows that's he's firing on the economy. The only one that's really working at this point is No. 1, which is to expand reserves."
Noting strength in Japanese equities, Gartman said that it would continue to strengthen. "You can actually be short other markets, but you want to be long the Nikkei," he said.
2. The gold trade
"You want to own gold in yen terms," Gartman said, echoing a trade he has long espoused. "It's been a terrible trade for the last year. It's down 7 percent, but if you've owned gold in dollar terms, you're down 35 percent." Gartman said that one way to own gold in yen terms was to buy, say, GLD, the gold exchange-traded fund and sell an equal amount of a Japanese yen ETF.
Being long the Nikkei, he added, was the same as selling the yen. "Do one or the other," Gartman said.
1. Playing a currency-cross
Gartman said that his top trade heading into year-end was to short the yen against the Canadian dollar and the British pound, a trade he had been talking about "for months." "Just today, it's started to take off again,"
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman letter, writes that it was Madiba, as Mandela was fondly called, who "kept South Africa together after the end of Apartheid," and that he now "fears" for South Africa.
"It was Nelson Mandela who forced the blacks in S. Africa to push ahead with the reconciliation councils rather than physically attacking whites living there. It was Madiba who chided radical blacks bent upon revolution rather than reconciliation, and it was Madiba who brought the whole of S. Africa into the modern world and showed the world that the leaders such as Mugabe from Zimbabwe, or Mobutu Sese Seko of the Congo needn’t be the hallmarks of a new African leadership.
"We do fear for S. Africa now that Madiba has passed away, for we fear that it was his presence that kept radicals such as Julius Malema at bay and away from the wheels of power there. One “look” from Madiba... one comment... one statement was sufficient to force Malema to be ousted from his position of authority within the ANC’s Youth League. President Zuma... a man in which we’ve no confidence whatsoever and a man given to the most lunatic decisions and actions... at least had to remain within the bounds of common sense knowing that Nelson Mandela could and would call his hand at a moment’s notice.
"Hence we fear for S. Africa once the period of mourning for the passing of this great man is passed; but for now we mourn the loss of this truly great man... a man for the ages, the likes of which we shall not likely see in our lifetime again."
Gartman goes on to compare President Obama and Madiba, saying the President is a man of the left moving farther in that direction. Mandela on the other hand, he writes, "was a man of the Left who moved to the centre and created a nation."
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
It's been a devastating year for fertilizer bulls and anyone who owns shares of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT-T).
In October, PotashCorp cut its 2013 profit outlook after the breakup of the Eastern European potash cartel sparked a drop in fertilizer prices. On Tuesday, the other shoe dropped when PotashCorp announced it was firing 18 percent of its workforce amid low prices and weak demand.
Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the widely followed Gartman Letter, tells BNN agriculture is "not a pretty business to be in." During a recent trip to Iowa, Gartman says he was stunned at the amount of grain and corn that's been produced.
"There's a huge crop out there and it's getting larger as they take it in," Gartman says. "And with the almost certain decrease in the mandate for ethanol usage in the United States, corn is in oversupply."
Gartman isn't calling a bottom and warns there could be more downside in agricultural commodities and fertilizer stocks. PotashCorp shares have rallied since hitting a 52-week low in early August and currently provide a dividend of more than 4 percent.
Several currency strategists have told BNN the recent slide in the Canadian dollar is an overreaction. But Gartman sees a major problem with the Canadian dollar, which is trading near a three-year low ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting tomorrow.
"The reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand are both talking down their dollars without equivocation. It's very hard for the Canadian dollar to rally," Gartman tells BNN, adding he's lost money buying the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen.
Gartman says he is bullish on the U.S. dollar. "Relative to all other currencies that's probably the better place to be right now."
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
"We look for a very slightly bullish report," economist Dennis Gartman, who is based in Suffolk, Virginia, said in his daily Gartman Letter. "Demand for corn, soybeans and wheat shall be cited as remaining very strong even as supplies continue to grow."
Monday, December 9, 2013
Raising bond shorts: Benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury rates hovered near three-month highs on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report.
Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter had been recommending the short bond trade since October. "I'm looking to get shorter, I think you could take the 10-year sometime next year well above 4 percent."
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter says, "at least the now deceased President Hugo Chavez Frias was both entertaining and brilliant. …The gentleman who has followed him is simply an idiot." From Gartman:
"We know this every day for several times each day he comes up with some new, idiotic left-wing policy that only a socialist could love and put forth. Yesterday, President Maduro issued a decree controlling the price of new and second-hand cars. New cars are currently all but impossible to find due to import restrictions he’s imposed and due to the fact that automobile manufacturers are unwilling to send cars to the country fearing expropriation by the government. Hence, Venezuelans now have to pay very high prices for used cars, with the price for used cars already there in Venezuela leaping above the "list price for new cars."
"…According to the new decree, the citizens of Venezuela will be “Expressly forbidden to speculate on the prices of second-hand vehicles as though they were new...” and those who break the new law will face jail sentences of six to 12 years.
"The President’s office said last evening that there will be more details today when the decree is official published in the nation’s newspapers; however what we found most fascinating and modest sadly comical was that this is the 625th such decree since he took office April 19th of this year. He’s making an aver age of 2.7 decrees/day. Such is the life of an idiot, socialist despot, making life for his people more and more difficult by the hour. Lunacy has no bounds."
Monday, December 2, 2013
Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, has 19 rules of trading from 2013.
SOMEONE’S ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNK YARD DOG: No matter how much “work” we do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we and has more capital!
PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals more often than not missed and/or disregarded... so pay attention!
WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE! Lord Keynes... again... once said that “ When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir?” When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduced your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.
NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms... mental and real... and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
"MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:" So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was... and is... right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish... or bearish... only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
KEEP YOUR SYSTEMS SIMPLE: Complication breeds confusion; simplicity breeds elegance and profitability.
UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or more simply put, "When they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’ and when they’re yellin’ you should be sellin’!"
REMEMBER, THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with worsening impact.
BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS: Need we really say more?
DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works well in life as well as trading. If there is a “secret” to trading... and to life... this is it.
CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we really say more? Errors only get worse.
ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Commodities trader Dennis Gartman believes the recent dip in the oil price, after a deal was reached between Iran and six world powers to curb its nuclear program, shows just how weak the yen currently is.
"This news alone should be supportive of the yen, for Japan is of course the nation most seriously exposed to the uncertainties of higher crude prices" he said in a research note on Monday. "The fundamentals of the Bank of Japan's aggressive expansion of its balance sheet trumps even this fundamental benefit...we are more bearish now than we were previously."
Gartman has a target price of 125 for the dollar-yen, a level it hasn't seen for the last eleven years.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
"It'll be some while. They're not going to come online tomorrow. They're not going to come online next week," he said. "But the market believes and understands, and I think rightfully expects that by the turn of the year we're going to have Iranian crude oil coming back to the market."
Monday, November 25, 2013
Fridays this year have been “treacherous” as investors have been been consistent and aggressive sellers going into the weekend, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said.
“The gold bulls look for any scraps of news to hang their arguments upon, but they are now left only to argue about 'manipulation' by some un-named nefarious sources as the reason for gold’s weakness. That is one of the poorer reasons to be bullish of gold, but it is the reason given by the 'Bugs' far more often than not,” Gartman added.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Dennis Gartman is sounding the alarm: a bear market is coming in bonds.
“It’s the first time in a long time I’ve wanted to be that way,” he said on CNBC late Monday, but he’s convinced rates are heading sharply higher from here. The benchmark 10-year note traded at a yield of 2.77% on Tuesday morning, but it could easily reach 4% in the next two years and 6% within the next 10 years, said Gartman, who publishes The Gartman Letter, a note about the capital markets.
Benchmark Treasury yields have moved over a full percentage point higher since this spring as concerns mount about when the Federal Reserve will begin withdrawing its bond purchase program, which has been used as economic stimulus. Market economists have largely projected that the timing of the so-called taper will be sometime between next month and spring of 2014.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing. If she takes over as leader of the central bank, she will inherit a Fed that “wants a more positively sloped yield curve,” Gartman said. The front end of the yield curve will likely stay anchored, as the Fed has committed to keeping its key interest rates low, but the taper is likely to push out the long end of the curve. That means the bonds many investors hold in their portfolio will be worth less.
But it’s not just driven by Fed expectations, says Gartman. “Friday’s employment number was indicative of what’s going on in the economy. Outside of New York, things are doing quite well, thank you very much,” he said.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Investor Dennis Gartman sees a "massive top" in the bond market, and he's shorting the long end of the yield curve.
Gartman On Rates:
"The yield on the 10-year Treasury could increase a half percent by the end of next year. Rates at the long end of the curve are probably quietly going to go higher. They're not going to go higher in a short period of time," Gartman said. "Over the course of the next six months, 12 months, we'll take the yield on the 10 year from 2.76 percent above 3 percent with no difficulty. We may get to 3.25 percent before the end of next year. But I don't see that really being detrimental to the economy."
Dennis Gartman on how monetary policy will impact gold, and crude oil:
"It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction of accommodation from the Fed."
On the timing of Fed tapering, he predicted: "It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction in the amount of accommodation by the Fed. I think it'll be at least through the middle of next year, if not the end of next year before we see any reduction in accommodation."
Gartman on the US economy:
"The economy is doing reasonably well" from what he sees during his travels around the country, adding that "we're [in] a very slow, very laborious, very boring economic strengthening period. That's what's sponsoring stronger yields, higher yields, at the back end of the curve."
Monday, November 18, 2013
Gold prices have declined for much of 2013 amid fears the Fed would curtail its monthly bond purchases, removing a long-running source of support from the gold market. Some investors feared the Fed's unconventional stimulus efforts would spark higher inflation and weaken the dollar, and purchased gold as a hedge.
"It is reasonable to expect that the Fed, under her leadership, shall tread the same path that the Bernanke Fed has trod over the course of the past five years," said Dennis Gartman, investor and publisher of The Gartman Letter.
Mr. Gartman said that "true believers" in gold perceive "that Dr. Yellen's term in office at the Fed shall be their salvation."
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
"WTI crude oil could work its way down to $85 per barrel. I have a sneaking suspicion we're going to go down and take a look and see how much $85 crude oil there is out there."
(Watch below video for full commentary)
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Monday, November 4, 2013
I like gold in terms of yen, not in terms of dollars, and it's predicated on the fact that the Bank of Japan has made it abundantly clear under Abenomics that they're going to expand the supply of Japanese reserves in the system aggressively. That should lead to some inflation and that will tend to help gold in yen terms, but gold in dollars? I could really care less about it.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
"Gold looks weak. "hank goodness I've owned it in terms of yen. It saved me from losing 25 percent instead of only down about 7 percent. That's still an egregious loss."
Gartman noted that on Friday gold had plummeted through a key level of $1,280 and down to $1,250 before gaining again. "But one has to expect that after a $30 bounce, it's probably going to go lower again,"
Gartman was replacing his bets on gold with moves into copper and steel. "I'm not allowed to talk about steel stocks," he said. "The SEC doesn't like it, but I can think about them, and I think that you should probably own steel stocks."
Gartman noted that steel stocks had run up recently. "I don't think I'd want to buy them here, but any correction, any movement lower, any 2 or 3 percent movement in big steel, you probably want to own it," he said. "I like metals. I like steel a whole lot more than I like gold."
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Ongoing quantitative easing from the Fed is making a few trades attractive, the commodities trader says.
Ongoing quantitative easing won’t be great for the U.S. dollar but will make a few other trades attractive. “As long as the Fed remains accommodative on into 2014 and I think they will remain all the way through 2014—that’s probably not supportive to the dollar,” he said. “It’s probably supportive to the bond market. It’s probably supportive to the gold market. And it’s probably supportive to stock prices.”
On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, who continues to be long gold in yen terms, said that he was now looking at another trade.
“I’m actually interested in buying gold now in euro terms,” he said. “I’m interested. I’m not doing it yet. But I have a fascination with what’s going on there.”
Gartman also said that this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting would be uneventful. “It’s probably going to be probably the most boring FOMC meeting of the year,” he said, noting that it does not make monetary policy changes without holding a news conference. “It’s going to be a very boring session.”
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Thursday, October 24, 2013
"Let's hope the adults have come back to the room. Let's hope we banished the children to the smaller table. This was really quite embarrassing to all of us."
Monday, October 21, 2013
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
The gold chart looks “horrid” and is set to worsen during New York trade, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said.
“This is Friday, and Fridays have tended in recent weeks and months to be days when the long-standing bulls finally chose to give up and when the bears choose again to show their strength. It may not be pretty,”
Sunday, October 13, 2013
“We need to understand that as this lunacy continues the job of the Federal Reserve Bank is made more and more difficult for there shall be less and less proper data collected by the government on the state of the US economy, and it is upon this data that the Fed’s decisions on monetary policy are based,” Gartman said.
“In this instance, the policy decision shall be: 'When in doubt, opt out.' That is, when in doubt, do nothing; sit tight and wait for further information and instructions,”
Sunday, October 6, 2013
The government shutdown is being viewed by some as a deflationary force in the world's largest economy. This is negative for gold as it is often purchased as a hedge against inflation.
"The economy seems weaker. With the closing of the government, and problems going on in Washington, that's a deflationary impact, and that weighs upon the gold market. If you could get strength in the economy you might actually get a bid to the gold market. Factors that could spark a fresh rally in gold include renewed tensions in the Middle East or the Federal Reserve becoming more accommodative than it has been."
Monday, September 30, 2013
Gold in yen terms at least has gone sideways,” over the past few years, he told industry experts at the IndexUniverse Inside Commodities Conference in New York City. Gold in dollar terms has been definitively a detrimental and ugly long investment.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have helped drive market volatility.
I am overtly, manifestly, insistently, bearish on the Japanese yen. The Japanese have no choice but to devalue their currency, and commodity prices in their terms are going to go dramatically higher.
The United States will also become a net exporter of energy within five or 10 years, thanks to a hydraulic fracking and natural gas boom here.
The U.S. is already a net exporter of gasoline, though exports of crude oil are banned by law here.
It’s only a matter of time until the United States is a net supplier of energy to the rest of the world. Given the growth in the fracking industry, we’re very soon going to be energy independent.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
There are three things you can count on. You can count on the fact that the sun is going to rise. You can count on your Mom loving you. And you can count on the fact that debt ceiling talk has been discounted by the market. The economy is clearly getting better, not just here but around the world.
Ask the people working two jobs to make ends meet on how the economy is improving. They might have something different to say.
The economy is improving, albeit very slowly. Wall Street and main street have seen the gulf between them widen even more in recent years. If the economy was improving so much, why is the Fed still pumping $85 billion into the market every month. That’s why stocks sell off anytime there’s good economic news, investors love that free money. They don’t want the economy to improve too much, or the Fed might start taking some of the money away.
The trend is up, so why would you fight it until that changes? Even the government can’t ruin this rally.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Anyone who tells you gold is a commodity and a "safe haven" is a "charlatan at best" and "a liar at worst," newsletter publisher Dennis Gartman told advisors and other professional investors this morning at the annual Inside Commodities conference in New York City. There is also a reasonable chance they are "a cheat,"
Gold is the "dumbest commodity" in history primarily because it is a currency, not a commodity, Gartman said. Commodities like coffee, copper, crude oil and sugar have practical uses; gold is used only in jewelry, which is hardly a necessity.
I'm not a gold bug. I don't like gold bugs.
Safe havens don't rise and fall in price by 2% or 3%. Silver frequently surges or swoons 5% "at will. If you want a safe haven, buy two-year Treasury notes.
There is plenty of $110 a barrel oil out there," he said. In the next five or ten years, we may find out "how much $50 or $60 a barrel oil is out there.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Going forward, we just have to keep an eye—as the Fed has told us—on unemployment and until that number gets below 6.5 percent, we can expect the Fed to do very little. We're going to have to be deep-diving into the monthly data even more than we have in the past, and we're going to find out that we need. Maybe 200,000 or 225,000 or maybe even 250,000 in monthly nonfarm payroll numbers before the Fed's going to be comfortable with reducing the amount of accommodation.
I said the Fed would do very, very little at all other than changing its rhetoric and [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke has made certain that we understand how data determinant the Fed would be going forward.
Those will be the voices that we pay all our attention to after the turn of the year. Miss George is clearly the hawk on the committee while Yellen will be the dove on the committee, and we do have to defer to Miss Yellen; she will be the chairman. It'll be interesting to see the debates around those two.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Concerning the possible replacement candidates, as noted above Dr. Yellen, the current Vice Chairman, has to be the front runner, although certainly she may be seen by some as “Damaged goods” given that she was already relegated to second-tier stature by the fact that the President had apparently chosen to pass her by as his nominee.
Nonetheless, Dr. Yellen clearly has the expertise and is well enough liked within the structure of the Fed to fill this role very well indeed. Despite the “Damaged goods” problem, she has to be considered the front runner if for no other reason than she had to go through a Senate confirmation hearing when she was posted to the Fed as its Vice Chairman in October of ’10.
Helping Dr. Yellen’s cause is the simple fact that she did a much, much better job of forecasting the problems that were to beset the US’... and the global... economy in ’07- 09 than did many other ranking officials on the Fed. Simply put, she got it right where most others missed the collapse entirely. And finally, of course, she is a woman and although the country is past this sort of consideration it is a real consideration nonetheless. Were we betting folks here at TGL, we'd have to consider Dr. Yellen as the prohibitive favorite.
Simply put, Mr. Summers is a rather unlikeable fellow, but who almost certainly is the 'smartest guy in the room' in whichever room he enters, but he has proven, shall we say, 'difficult' at very best.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Tokyo's winning bid to host the 2020 Olympics will likely boost Japan's gross domestic product, but hosting the games may actually prove to be a financial burden in the long run, investor Dennis Gartman said Monday.
"There's no question it will be good for GDP … they're going to have to build new venues. They're going to have to upgrade their roads. They're going to have to build new bridges," Gartman said on CNBC. "We also know that with the exception of every other city other than Calgary, anybody who's held an Olympics in the last 40 years has regretted the fact that they've done it … I bet that this is going to be detrimental to Japan in the long run and I bet by the time we get there, they're going to wish they didn't have the Olympics."
Following Tokyo's Olympics win, the yen fell on Monday, losing ground after Japanese stocks rallied and the Nikkei jumped 2.5 percent
Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, told "Fast Money" he remains long the Nikkei and short the yen.
"I want to be bullish of stocks generally. The Nikkei has done well for me recently," Gartman said, adding he plans to buy more of the Nikkei, too, because he think the yen is likely to continue to fall.
Monday, September 16, 2013
Friday, September 13, 2013
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Monday, September 9, 2013
When they do so, in the case of India, these foreign investors get rupees that they have to sell to get U.S. dollars back.
Friday, September 6, 2013
The rupee has fallen to record lows in recent weeks as policymakers scramble to put measures in place to prop the legal tender and stem the currency outflows.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Monday, August 19, 2013
Let Labor Day come, let everyone come back from the beach. Let's see what kind of buying we have first week in September. I think that's probably the best place to be.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Monday, August 5, 2013
Now, has he perhaps over-stayed the "accomodation" welcome? perhaps, but let's remember that "taperin' " ain't exitin'. To taper is to reduce the level of accomodation, but it is not a tightening move. Tightening shall require a full stop on securities purchases and then allowing the existing portfolio to mature off at a pace faster then the stream of income that shall flow to the Fed for years into the future. ...
So when do I think that QE shall truly end? Not for at least a year... perhaps two. We've got to taper down from $85 billion per month in new securities purchased to 75 to 65 to 55 to 45... and then allow those securities to mature off. That's quite some while into the future. Again, tapering is not the end of accomodation.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Monday, July 29, 2013
Monday, July 15, 2013
But if those don't occur, given the fact that rain does make grain; given the fact that the crop finally did get into the ground in reasonable order; and given the very good growing conditions that have occurred in the past several weeks, you're going to have a huge corn crop. And we will not be able to use it.
The carryover next year is going to be egregiously high. I'm hard-pressed to think that that means anything other than lower prices. Moreover, the charts don't look bullish. The charts certainly look bearish.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Monday, July 8, 2013
As for "the box," it's something I've always looked at; it delineates the 50 to 62% retracement of the previous rally, or the 50 to 62% retracement of the previous big decline. If you think gold started on its upward climb from $275 an ounce 12 years ago, and got to close to $1920 an ounce, 50% back merely takes you to about $1100. A 62% correction could take you all the way to $900. That's a long ways away.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
What is unusual is that the bank didn't come in after the holiday to re-liquefy the system. I think this was a brilliant move on the Bank of China's part to tell the markets, "Look, we're not going to be here to backstop you. You probably have got yourself overextended. Better get your house in order." It got everybody's attention. And my guess is that those who are a bit overextended are going to do what they can to become underextended.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
The Fed understands it has to get itself out of the box that it has put itself in. The way to do that is slowly, over time. I find it amusing that people are already responding as if the Fed has already begun to tighten. We have to remember, the Fed is going to continuously add reserves to the system until middle of 2014. It will just be that they are adding at a lesser pace. It's not as if they have taken anything out of the system. I think the markets have overreacted.
Monday, July 1, 2013
Fed governor Dudley made it quite clear the Fed is going to be there for quite some time in the future, adding reserves to the future. That probably means higher share prices.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Thursday, June 27, 2013
It looks like a bottom. The trend has been from the lower left to the upper right. I own stocks first time in a long time. It's the bottom for this run, and it should hold," he added. If the bottom doesn't hold, I'll go to the sidelines.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
For years I've owned Gold in terms of Yen terms. Turns out it was a bigger yen trade than a Gold trade. Gold is just another currency.
Monday, June 24, 2013
You can't find yourself being too terribly bullish of any of the metals at this point. I'll press the short side in gold.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Like an aging athlete, [gold] just keeps faltering. It cannot just quite get across the line to catch that pass any longer than it used to be able to do very readily. Even with all of the news that is supposedly as bullish of gold as you can get – a weakening dollar at times, continued monetary expansion by every central bank in the world – gold can’t rally.
The oldest rule in commodity trading is when something can't rally when the news is bullish, it's a bear market.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Now you have Nigeria, Angola angry. Nigeria depends absolutely on exports of crude oil to United States. Now the Saudi's have quietly usurped that position. Now once again we are beholden to middle eastern crude in unusual fashion.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
You gonna continue to see continued oil production in the various shale oil. You wanna own the rail roads that deliver crude oil, refiners that have exposure to the United States, Continental oil.
If there was a way to short OPEC, I would do sell OPEC short. The loser in this is going to be OPEC.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Friday, May 10, 2013
I actually took a position being short of the bond market for the first time in a long time. And I'm doing it in an unusual manner. I'm selling the very long end. I'm selling the long bond. I'm buying the 10-year.
I'm short the very long end. I'm long something in the middle. I think you've set it up for the end of the bull market in bonds. I think you've started the beginning of the bear market."
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Trading, as they say, ain’t easy and like growing old. It ain’t for sissies. The trick... the “Secret”... the thing that separates those of us who’ve survived for decades in the business from those who light up the sky in a brief blaze and then blaze out like Icarus flying to close to the sun... is that those who survive do so because we know our limits; know our boundaries; we know when we are wrong and we admit it often and quickly. The “secret” is that there is no secret.
Last week we tried to sell both the US equity market and gold and both proved almost comically wrong, with the decision by Mr. Draghi on Thursday turning our trades blithely and consequentially wrong within a day. But the losses were “livable,” and were kept to 1-2%. Those are manageable losses; those can be survived, and we did indeed survive, with only our reputation sullied a bit in the process. Such are the vagaries of trading, and such shall be the vagaries of trading in the days, weeks, months, years and hopefully decades ahead.
Some have asked if we were embarrassed by the one unit short positions in gold and equities and do we wish we’d not done them? We shall answer in a most direct manner: “Nothing we did was embarrassing; they were simply wrong.” Our trades were well designed; the risks were well defined; the technical circumstances were well documented and historically valid... the trades simply went awry. We would not hesitate to do the same trades in the same manner under the same circumstances anytime again in the future; we would not hesitate for even a minute and we wish to be quite clear about that fact.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dennis-gartman-admits-he-was-wrong-2013-5#ixzz2SjJpuQ5b
Thursday, May 2, 2013
The bet is to own Gold, why would you expose yourself to miners union problems, mother nature problems, hedging problems. Sometime in the future the miners will outperform the gold. If you miss it by 6 months to a year you will still be early. So you dont want to own the miners and you really do not want to own the Juniors.
Monday, April 29, 2013
The central banks have been money printing around the world. Its a back to a 'Risk On' circumstances again. Buy the Aussie dollar, Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil and short the bond market.
In terms on stocks, buy the Chinese stocks although Korea and Russian stocks are probably a better buy right now.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
If you want to buy gold, buy the actual gold such as the etf GLD or the Gold futures. Avoid the gold miners and specially the junior miners
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Government securities have been the only thing to own. People have given Gary Shilling a very hard time. But that[Government securities] has been and probably will be the best trade for a while.
Monday, April 15, 2013
I've never seen anything like this. I mean it.
Cyprus has been told to liquidate their Gold positions to pay off their bailout. This has been creating a downward pressure on Gold for a while. If Cyprus will have to do it, Spain, Italy will probably have to do it also because it will be unfair to Cypriots.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Commodities have problems including the grain markets. Huge crops are in supply and demand is clearly going to be waning.
At the moment commodities such as copper, aluminium also have lots of inventory which is going to create pressures on the price. Short term demand could be affected but they are still within a longer term bull market.
Friday, April 5, 2013
Thursday, April 4, 2013
I think the decision here was egregiously bad. I think this was lunacy on the part of the European monetary authorities, the banking regulators, or whoever it was responsible for making this decision in Cyprus. They have stepped on Russian toes, and the Russians are not going to be happy about this. Somebody will have to pay for it. I think this is very stupid.
Everybody knows that the vast majority of the deposits in Cyprus are from Russia. They’re Russian government officials, they’re Russian businessmen, it’s Russian mafia – and you don’t mess with the Russian mafia.
They(North Korea) have very few capabilities. They have land forces. If they decided to make a rush over the border, they could do that," he said. "They have no real nuclear capabilities whatsoever. Their missiles are very, very old, very immature. They can't move more than 1,500 kilometers.
It's fun to watch the pictures, but are they going to do anything? No.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
We have been openly bullish of equities unerringly since late last year and became even more so on the first day of this year when the indices all 'gapped' higher on huge volume. We had no choice but to be bullish; the markets were powering higher and they had the fuel from the monetary authorities to do so.
Now, however, that fuel is thought to be pushed a bit away; the "punch bowl" has been moved nearly out of reach and that alone would be sufficient to force us to change our bullish posture. But with the technical in the markets breaking down as badly as they have we've no choice but to exit any and all bullish constructed positions and rush to the sidelines.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Where we might have been 'technically' bullish of the EUR we must now be technically and fundamentally bearish of it. The game board has been flipped over; the game has changed... change with it or perish. We cannot be more blunt than that.
Friday, March 1, 2013
"When tectonic plates in the earth’s crust shift earthquakes happen and when the tectonic plants shift beneath our feet in the capital markets margin calls take place. The tectonic plates have shifted and attention... very careful and very substantive attention must be paid.
"Simply put, the game has changed and where we were playing a 'game' fueled by the monetary authorities and fueled by the urge on the part of participants to see and believe in rising 'animal spirits' as Lord Keynes referred to them we played bullishly of equities and of the EUR and of 'risk assets'. Now, with the game changing, our tools have to change and so too our perspective.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
I just don't like them(stocks) now," he added. "Cash is not such a bad thing to hold."
Gartman reiterated that stocks could be headed for a 7 percent decline from their highs.
When I watch something move 2, 3 percent against me, I get concerned," he said. "I'm on the sidelines and happy to be there.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Friday, February 8, 2013
We have found five times more proven reserves of crude oil than we had in 1968. And I guarantee that in 20 years we’ll have more than five times the crude oil we’ve found today. Just (recently) they announced in South Texas that they found three billion more barrels of proven reserves of crude.
America is the biggest supplier of oil to America. The President has said we’re going to end the United States dependency on Middle East crude oil, and my response is that we’ve already done that.”
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, expects that the Fed's monetary policy committee will take no action whatsoever this week.
Indeed, the only things that might come from the meeting is further clarification, if any, of its intentions moving forward regarding purchases and/or dispensing of assets from its balance sheet.
The debate at the meeting very well may focus on upon potential losses that might be suffered by the bank on its balance sheet as debt prices weaken and interest rates rise.