Friday, November 29, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
"It'll be some while. They're not going to come online tomorrow. They're not going to come online next week," he said. "But the market believes and understands, and I think rightfully expects that by the turn of the year we're going to have Iranian crude oil coming back to the market."
Monday, November 25, 2013
Fridays this year have been “treacherous” as investors have been been consistent and aggressive sellers going into the weekend, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said.
“The gold bulls look for any scraps of news to hang their arguments upon, but they are now left only to argue about 'manipulation' by some un-named nefarious sources as the reason for gold’s weakness. That is one of the poorer reasons to be bullish of gold, but it is the reason given by the 'Bugs' far more often than not,” Gartman added.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Dennis Gartman is sounding the alarm: a bear market is coming in bonds.
“It’s the first time in a long time I’ve wanted to be that way,” he said on CNBC late Monday, but he’s convinced rates are heading sharply higher from here. The benchmark 10-year note traded at a yield of 2.77% on Tuesday morning, but it could easily reach 4% in the next two years and 6% within the next 10 years, said Gartman, who publishes The Gartman Letter, a note about the capital markets.
Benchmark Treasury yields have moved over a full percentage point higher since this spring as concerns mount about when the Federal Reserve will begin withdrawing its bond purchase program, which has been used as economic stimulus. Market economists have largely projected that the timing of the so-called taper will be sometime between next month and spring of 2014.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing. If she takes over as leader of the central bank, she will inherit a Fed that “wants a more positively sloped yield curve,” Gartman said. The front end of the yield curve will likely stay anchored, as the Fed has committed to keeping its key interest rates low, but the taper is likely to push out the long end of the curve. That means the bonds many investors hold in their portfolio will be worth less.
But it’s not just driven by Fed expectations, says Gartman. “Friday’s employment number was indicative of what’s going on in the economy. Outside of New York, things are doing quite well, thank you very much,” he said.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Investor Dennis Gartman sees a "massive top" in the bond market, and he's shorting the long end of the yield curve.
Gartman On Rates:
"The yield on the 10-year Treasury could increase a half percent by the end of next year. Rates at the long end of the curve are probably quietly going to go higher. They're not going to go higher in a short period of time," Gartman said. "Over the course of the next six months, 12 months, we'll take the yield on the 10 year from 2.76 percent above 3 percent with no difficulty. We may get to 3.25 percent before the end of next year. But I don't see that really being detrimental to the economy."
Dennis Gartman on how monetary policy will impact gold, and crude oil:
"It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction of accommodation from the Fed."
On the timing of Fed tapering, he predicted: "It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction in the amount of accommodation by the Fed. I think it'll be at least through the middle of next year, if not the end of next year before we see any reduction in accommodation."
Gartman on the US economy:
"The economy is doing reasonably well" from what he sees during his travels around the country, adding that "we're [in] a very slow, very laborious, very boring economic strengthening period. That's what's sponsoring stronger yields, higher yields, at the back end of the curve."
Monday, November 18, 2013
Gold prices have declined for much of 2013 amid fears the Fed would curtail its monthly bond purchases, removing a long-running source of support from the gold market. Some investors feared the Fed's unconventional stimulus efforts would spark higher inflation and weaken the dollar, and purchased gold as a hedge.
"It is reasonable to expect that the Fed, under her leadership, shall tread the same path that the Bernanke Fed has trod over the course of the past five years," said Dennis Gartman, investor and publisher of The Gartman Letter.
Mr. Gartman said that "true believers" in gold perceive "that Dr. Yellen's term in office at the Fed shall be their salvation."
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
"WTI crude oil could work its way down to $85 per barrel. I have a sneaking suspicion we're going to go down and take a look and see how much $85 crude oil there is out there."
(Watch below video for full commentary)
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Monday, November 4, 2013
I like gold in terms of yen, not in terms of dollars, and it's predicated on the fact that the Bank of Japan has made it abundantly clear under Abenomics that they're going to expand the supply of Japanese reserves in the system aggressively. That should lead to some inflation and that will tend to help gold in yen terms, but gold in dollars? I could really care less about it.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
"Gold looks weak. "hank goodness I've owned it in terms of yen. It saved me from losing 25 percent instead of only down about 7 percent. That's still an egregious loss."
Gartman noted that on Friday gold had plummeted through a key level of $1,280 and down to $1,250 before gaining again. "But one has to expect that after a $30 bounce, it's probably going to go lower again,"
Gartman was replacing his bets on gold with moves into copper and steel. "I'm not allowed to talk about steel stocks," he said. "The SEC doesn't like it, but I can think about them, and I think that you should probably own steel stocks."
Gartman noted that steel stocks had run up recently. "I don't think I'd want to buy them here, but any correction, any movement lower, any 2 or 3 percent movement in big steel, you probably want to own it," he said. "I like metals. I like steel a whole lot more than I like gold."