Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Gartman update on Rates, gold, oil and the economy

Investor Dennis Gartman sees a "massive top" in the bond market, and he's shorting the long end of the yield curve.


Gartman On Rates:
"The yield on the 10-year Treasury could increase a half percent by the end of next year. Rates at the long end of the curve are probably quietly going to go higher. They're not going to go higher in a short period of time," Gartman said. "Over the course of the next six months, 12 months, we'll take the yield on the 10 year from 2.76 percent above 3 percent with no difficulty. We may get to 3.25 percent before the end of next year. But I don't see that really being detrimental to the economy."


Dennis Gartman on how monetary policy will impact gold, and crude oil:
"It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction of accommodation from the Fed."


On the timing of Fed tapering, he predicted: "It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction in the amount of accommodation by the Fed. I think it'll be at least through the middle of next year, if not the end of next year before we see any reduction in accommodation."


Gartman on the US economy: 
"The economy is doing reasonably well" from what he sees during his travels around the country, adding that "we're [in] a very slow, very laborious, very boring economic strengthening period. That's what's sponsoring stronger yields, higher yields, at the back end of the curve."