Monday, August 19, 2013

The market is telling me that I'm wrong

If a market moves and gets me by 2.5 or 3 percent, that to me is an egregious move. It tells me that I'm wrong. My trades in the stock market? Terrible. I want out. The market is telling me that I'm wrong. I'm going to the sidelines.

Let Labor Day come, let everyone come back from the beach. Let's see what kind of buying we have first week in September. I think that's probably the best place to be.


Thursday, August 8, 2013

I'm a simple guy; I like simple things

I like "stuff"... steel; copper; trains; boats... simple things. I'm returning to an old thesis that worked well a decade or so ago: buying "the things that if I dropped'em on my foot would hurt." Simple things like ball bearings, steel, et al. Dividend paying companies with long histories. I'm a simple guy; I like simple things... others can trade big pharma and the like; that's far too sophisticated for me. And god knows, I will never, ever understand gaming and on-line games and movie venders on line et al. Others wiser than I can trade there; 'tis beyond my ken

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

The secret to trading and investing

The very secret to trading and investing and life itself: Do more of that which is working and just try your darndest to less of that which is not. If you buy a stock at $15 and it goes to $20, buy more becuase the market's telling you that you are right, but if you buy a stock at $15 and it goes to $12, cut the position back becuase you're wrong and why do more of something that's wrong. If taking flowers to your girlfriend works wonders, then buy her more flowers. That's life; that's trading' that's investing. Do more of that which is working and just really, really really try to do less of that which is not. I leave you with that thought.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Bernanke has been a truly fantastic Fed Chairman

Bernanke has been a truly fantastic Fed Chairman and had it not been for him, acting as the "adult" in the room in the autumn of '08 the whole system might have collapsed. He will have my undimmed support for that decision alone.

Now, has he perhaps over-stayed the "accomodation" welcome? perhaps, but let's remember that "taperin' " ain't exitin'. To taper is to reduce the level of accomodation, but it is not a tightening move. Tightening shall require a full stop on securities purchases and then allowing the existing portfolio to mature off at a pace faster then the stream of income that shall flow to the Fed for years into the future. ...

So when do I think that QE shall truly end? Not for at least a year... perhaps two. We've got to taper down from $85 billion per month in new securities purchased to 75 to 65 to 55 to 45... and then allow those securities to mature off. That's quite some while into the future. Again, tapering is not the end of accomodation.