Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Bull market continues on

Its still a bull market. Prices are still moving from the lower left to the upper right. 

Anyone that has tried to fade it... it has proven to be an ill advised decision, and weakness is to be bought, strength is not to be sold. I've even tried every once in a while to sell it and its just been silly, its just been abjectly stupid. The trend is still a bull market so why fight it. 

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Gold in Yen still going strong

I've been bullish on gold for two and half years but not in terms of US Dollars but in Yen terms. 

Long Gold, Short Yen has been a great trade. Long Gold in dollar terms has been a horrifying trade. I have no opinion of Gold in terms of dollar terms. I have a very strong opinion of Gold in terms of Yen.



Monday, December 29, 2014

Crude Oil may be close to a bottom


I have been very bearish for a long period of time because of the manner the term structure has been moving. But all of a sudden in the past few days, the term structure is beginning to move in the other direction. 

I think the time for being overtly bearish of crude oil has probably passed. I think the time for being bullish of crude oil lies a long way into the future. 

I'd like to think that Crude Oil will stabilize down here. I cant imagine people are going to go out and rush to buy a new house predicated upon the fact that crude oil prices and Gasoline prices have fallen, but I bet they would go out and buy more a bit more as far as Christmas presents are concerned. 

I doubt we will see a great deal lower on crude oil prices from here. The vast majority of the move is behind us... thankfully. 



VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102285754 on Dec 19, 2014

Monday, December 22, 2014

Crude oil to continue sliding lower

Crude oil has this terrible, hysterical tendency of falling 75, 80 and 90 percent in value. Can it go down farther from here? Absolutely.

Until the front months stop leading the way down, crude still wants to go lower.


Energy Efficiency

We get so much more GDP per barrel of crude oil now than we did in the past. Every one of our automobiles gets better gas mileage than they did in the past. We heat our houses with less fuel than we did in the past.

Everybody is depressed because crude is collapsing and you are just getting baby and bathwater being tossed out all at one time. That will end in the not-too-distant future

Friday, December 19, 2014

Benefits of lower gas to show up

The American public will respond to the decline in gasoline prices very soon. Expect them to their restaurants more often, expect Christmas to be stronger than we thought.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Gartman on Russian Rouble moves against dollar

In our forty years of trading in, watching and commenting upon the forex markets we have truly never seen anything such as what we’ve seen in Moscow in the past two sessions.

As the rouble collapses, so too the Russian stock market, and the sums of capital/net worth being destroyed are stunning. The world’s net worth is imploding and our concerns about things generally are rising. This is an event triggering very real global concerns, and if it has not yet it will – mark our words.

We are convinced that the defence of the rouble is indeed indefensible, although the Russian central bank has several hundred billion dollars still in reserve with which to buy rouble and to sell dollars.

We shall strongly suggest watching what happens should the rouble/dollar rate trade upward again today to 72, the dollar’s intra-day high. If it does, amidst massive bank dollar selling the game shall rush swiftly and violently against the bank. It will be tested and we fear the bank will lose,

Monday, December 8, 2014

Dennis Gartman thinks ECB will loosen monetary policy eventually

The ECB has not moved at all. It has not moved to tighten monetary policy, nor has it moved to ease. It has done nothing… nothing at all, and it has done nothing with a great deal of fanfare.

Between [Mario] Draghi on one side and the Germans on the other, with Draghi pushing for a much more aggressively easier policy while the Germans fight for monetary austerity. Eventually, Draghi will win this debate, and indeed he must, for the very existence of the monetary union depends upon an end to German austerity that has begotten double-digit unemployment rates across so much of the continent and has kept them at double-digit rates.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Swiss voters reject Gold vote

We thought it would indeed go down to defeat, for the Swiss National Bank’s authorities were openly antagonistic toward the initiative as were most political authorities, but we never thought it would be defeated so soundly.

Given the huge nature of the ‘no’ votes, we suspect it shall be a very, very long while; years certainly; a decade or more perhaps… before this sort of initiative is put before the Swiss votes again,


Monday, December 1, 2014

Buying Gold in Yen terms could be a smart trade

Sell Yen and buy Gold, that's probably the real trade to look at. Gold in Yen terms could be dramatically 50 percent higher two years from now simply because the yen is going to get so weak. 

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Japan should not follow austerity measures

The very, very last thing that Japan needs at this time is fiscal austerity, Japan does not need to follow the lead set by the US government back in the 30's when in the midst of what was then only a very severe recession it moved to tighten monetary policy and raise taxes in order to balance the budget.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Japan GDP numbers miss could be intentional if you believe in conspiracy theories

Dennis Gartman appears on CNBC and explains to Melissa Lee on the Japan trade

The miss[Japan GDP numbers] was so egregiously large, I mean you don't miss by almost 4 percent on one side to another. It would be one thing to expect GDP to be half a percent and it was down half a percent. Instead you were looking for up 2 percent and you were down 1.6 percent. That is an amazing miss. I have a feeling that's been massaged to make certain that we had a bad number so that the Bank of Japan would have absolute cover for continuation of devaluation of the yen, and at the same time that Abe will be given the right to do away with the ludicrous nature of a tax increase. 

The consumption tax shouldn't have been put into effect last year, it clearly should not be put into effect next year. And I think the GDP number if you want to align yourself with conspiratorialist was simply a massaged number to make sure that Abe has clear reign not to go ahead with that tax increase.


Monday, November 17, 2014

Dennis Gartman covers short oil position

Dennis Gartman speaks on CNBC
The market was collapsing. On a day when the markets are collapsing, the front months should be falling far more dramatically than the back months. Instead actually the front months fell slightly less. Thats a very unusually circumstance.

I watched the Term Structure and how it moves and the Term Structure was not bearish on a decidedly bearish day. It told me cover in, go to the sidelines, I've been very lucky. It was time to stand aside. I think the time to be short [oil] has passed us by


VIA CNBC

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Public beating the pros in stock markets at the moment

It still seems to be a bull market. Every time I try to go to the sidelines it proves to be absolutely wrong thing to do. I'm not alone in that. It seems like all of the pros are the ones Not doing well in the market. 

It seems like the public that sits tight and just allows monetary policy and stronger economic environs to carry share prices higher do quite well.


Dennis Gartman on CNBC Interview

Monday, November 10, 2014

Canada unemployment numbers were great.. North America labor market looking good

 


Concerning the unemployment numbers, I think we need to pay attention to what happened in Canada because the numbers that came out of Canada was shockingly good. The world was expecting the numbers to show minus numbers maybe 5000 to 7000 jobs lost. Instead the numbers were up instead 43,000. Across North America the job market is really quite good and surprisingly good. 

Monday, November 3, 2014

Europe stock weakness due to Germany

The Germans have been terribly reticent and absolutely wrong in their reticence about not expanding reserves from the ECB.... and they have done I think untold amounts of damage to the economy and that is why it has lagged. 

Also there is terribly difficult reforms that have to be accomplished. But if all of those things do happen and you get Quantitative Easing, then I think European stocks will do reasonably well...Probably still will be better to be invested in the United States. 

But if you must be invested in Europe under Quantitative Easing go ahead and do it. At the same time make sure you are short of the Euro, I think that's the real trade to be long of the stock market and short of the euro because if they do Quantitative Easing that will be detrimental to the Euro and that will actually be very good for the European economy.



VIA CNBC interview

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gartman does not view Gold as inflation hedge now

A stronger dollar is always deleterious to stronger gold, but perhaps what's most important of all is you're three or four euros under a new high in gold, in euro terms. 

I think gold is nothing more than a currency. I don't look at it as an inflation hedge anymore.


VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102106575

Monday, October 27, 2014

Market moves surprise Dennis Gartman

As I tell people I have only been at this for 45 years so I am relatively new to it. But this is the sort of volatility that I have never seen…  I’m talking about commodities and equities across the board.  Even in the bond market.  

In aggregate I am seeing movements I have never seen before… These are unprecedented … It is very difficult for someone like me who grew up in a different era to make sense of what is going on.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpollaro/2014/10/24/the-markets-not-making-sense-says-dennis-gartman-austrian-business-cycle-theory-can-help/

Friday, October 24, 2014

Dennis Gartman says he missed a "V bottom"

This is the type of volatility that is absolutely beyond my ken. Quite honestly, I have not seen anything like this in the last 2 weeks. 

In retrospect, one should have thrown all caution to the wind, covered any short positions, and spent cash and bought stocks. When I went to neutral 2 weeks ago, the stock market is still below than when I went neutral. Clearly, in retrospect, I should have bought it. I'm not that smart, nor should I ever be. Clearly, I missed the V-bottom. And I'm going to be okay with that fact. Even if it rallies a little bit, its still below where I went to neutral and I'm going to stay that way.


Monday, October 20, 2014

Bear market may be about to begin

This is the start of a bear market and it could last for several more months I'm afraid. This could be more than a mere Seven to Ten percent correction.




Originally from CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/102092358

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Euro is doomed to fail says Dennis Gartman

The (Euro), we fear, is doomed to failure at this point. The political anger that has been evidenced in the battles over (European Commission president-elect) Mr. (Jean-Claude) Juncker's proposed Cabinet shall erupt in full flower in the days ahead. The FIG countries cannot abide further austerity; austerity in the face of 20+percent unemployment is economic nonsense. On the other hand the GAFs, with sub 6 percent unemployment, really don't need an expansionary monetary policy, can abide fiscal conservatism and will fight for both. 

As the world awaited a hoped-for clear and precise statement that the ECB was prepared to actually take action on monetary policy and become expansionary, it instead heard a lecture explaining that he and the others on the ECB's monetary policy committee had done all that they could do to try to strengthen the economy there and that the real battle had to be waged by the political authorities to reform the sclerotic nature of the economies there. 


VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077515

Monday, October 13, 2014

Could see a 15 percent correction and start of bear market

The environment has turned toxic to be quite honest and has been made worse by the Ebola circumstance. I think that will turn the psychology of the average investor. Rather than becoming expensive and looking for good news, people are going to be fearful of bad news. 

And it bothers me greatly that the broader stock market indices, the Russell for example has failed to make new highs, has broken major trend lines. And I think this is more than a 3 or 5 percent correction. I think this could be a relatively 10 or 15 percent correction from the highs. Now I think the proper place to be is in cash, on the sidelines.


VIA CNBC 

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Dennis Gartman simply the best

I think the global economy is still going to be strong. 

It's time to start looking at owning those very simple ideas. Very simple ideas—I want to buy steel. I want to buy rails. I want to buy aluminum. So, Alcoa and big steel are my ideas again for the first time in a while. It's an old story of mine.

via CNBC

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Brazil elections to be won by Rousseff

He [Neves] has no chance whatsoever to win the election. President Rousseff is going to win. She is a Marxist, a former guerilla. I'm sorry, ex-Marxists and former guerillas do not change their stripes.

I'm fearful of this young lady [Rousseff] being president again. She is going to, I think, move even farther left.

Monday, October 6, 2014

Dennis Gartman on German companies

German firms, if we've learned anything about them over the years, operate quietly for the very most part. They do not like controversy. They prefer stability; they live and breathe the chain-of-command and they abjure those who stand up and cause confusion and/or consternation within that chain.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Bill Gross a genius but Bond market bigger than even him

The bond market is bigger by far than the mere machinations of Mr. William Gross, genius though he is, has been and likely shall be in the future.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Bill Gross departure wont affect Bond Markets much

The bond market was thrown into a state of confusion early Friday following the announcement of Mr. Gross' resignation, but we are talking here of the departure of one man from one fund, whose influence had been waning for quite some while as his asset base was falling. 

The bond market is collectively wise enough to accept Mr. Gross' departure from Pimco and 'get-on-with-it' without undue problems

That which gets sold in the coming weeks is probably to be bought and that which is bought should probably be sold as the bond market seeks 'in medias res' over any modest protracted period of time. 




VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102040474

Monday, September 29, 2014

Fear Deflation for now, not Inflation

I don't think there's any great need to own Gold in dollar terms. If you're fearful about inflation, you're wrong. Grain prices are down. Iron ore prices are down. Crude oil prices are down. Rubber prices are down. Owning Gold in non US Dollar terms however owning in Yen, Euro terms have been okay. You are down about 1 percent over the course of last two or three years. Where as if you owned Gold in dollar terms you're down like 35 percent

As I've said, I just went to North Carolina state, I didn't go to Harvard or Yale but even we know losing 1 percent is somewhat better than 35. 

I wish I had been short of Gold in Dollar terms. It would have been a brilliant trade. But I'm not that smart. I have wanted to own a bit of gold, just predicated in a different currency, so I'll leave it at that. I can understand why somebody might want to be short of gold. I wouldn't do it, not down here. Being short of Gold at at $1600, $1500, $1400, it probably wasn't a bad idea but here at $1200 I'll let someone else do it, I wont.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Dennis Gartman exits Alcoa position

It [Alcoa symbol AA] was one my biggest position since last October. I sold all my Alcoa, I am out, I am gone. 

Doesn't mean the company is bad. I think the company is still great. I have great expectations for Aluminium itself over the course of next several years. But I think the run in Alcoa has probably run its most of its fun for the past several months. 


via CNBC Interview on Sep 15, 2014

Monday, September 22, 2014

Time to be quietly bullish Crude oil

I was a seller of crude oil and I've been a seller of crude oil for a long time.

Whats interesting is specially with relatively bearish news with increased sanctions on Russians which should have been deleterious to crude oil prices and with a less than impressive industrial production number out of China that should have put crude oil prices lower, however by end of the day crude oil ended up higher. That's very impressive. When the market turns after a protracted decline you have to pay attention. 

I think from here on on one wants to err on the side of quietly bullish of the Crude Oil market. 


via CNBC Interview on Sept 15, 2014

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Dennis Gartman calls a start in US Dollar bull market

Everybody wants to be a bull of Gold in dollar terms and it just wears you out. It is a bull market in the dollar. And in that environment a strong dollar is always going to put downward pressure on commodities and is specially worrisome for those who are bullish of Gold. [Gold in Euro and Yen terms] it's actually quite strong. Gold is nothing other than a currency

US Dollar strong uptrend last few months
[The US Dollar] I think we are only in inning two of what could be a 10-inning baseball game. I think we just started a bull market in the dollar.



VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/101993909

Monday, September 15, 2014

Crude oil reversal to upside important

The fact that crude oil made a low amidst enormous bearish news and reversed to the upside. That's very impressive. I pay attention to reversals such as reversals we had in Crude Oil. That might have been an important low.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Cold weather could boost corn prices

There is one very real concern: the possibility suddenly of an early frost. Should temperatures drop toward freezing, corn prices might indeed shoot rather markedly higher, for the crop is vulnerable to frost at this point.


via http://www.agweb.com/article/corn_rebounds_as_cooler_us_temperatures_raise_frost_concern_BLMG/

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

ECB monetary policy has become more expansionary

Make no mistake about it: the ECB has become expansionary and this is but the first step in its doing so.

Just as few, other than we, thought that the Fed would have QE 2 and QE 3 following the first round of QE, we suspect that few will argue that this first round of QE on the part of the ECB shall result in larger and more such operations in the future, but we do and we are.

That is what is important to understand here beyond minutia: this is the first shot across the monetary bow in Europe by the ECB and it shall not be the last.

Remember this statement in the days, weeks, months and perhaps even the years ahead. The ECB has, in the most common language, lost its monetary virginity and once lost it cannot ever be regained.


via http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-05/dennis-gartman-short-power-control-terms

Friday, September 5, 2014

Concerned by market response recently

What bothers me is I've been bullish stocks for a while and I really was dismayed by stock markets around the world responded to the ECB's decision yesterday. 

In the States we opened up strongly, higher, finished the day lower, you should never see that sort of activity and that causes me a great great deal of concern. I've been very bullish of stocks, perhaps it's time not to be quite so bullish.


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101973990

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Dennis Gartman on Germany sanctions on

Russia’s further incursions into eastern Ukraine create enormous problems for Europe, and especially for Germany, for there is no choice now but to increase rather than decrease the sanctions in place against the Russian, the impact of which shall hardly be felt by the US but shall egregiously be felt by the Germans and the French.

[French President] Hollande and [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel are already in difficult political straits; those straits are becoming more dire by the hour. We do not envy their positions even slightly,” Gartman added.

via Fastmarkets

Stocks melting up and will go higher [VIDEO]

We are in-fact melting highs and making new highs and we will continue to make new highs. Bull market is intact.






I have been bullish on gold for almost two years in terms of Yen and I've been bullish for the last six or seven months in terms of Euro. 

I'm really quite bullish on gold in terms of Yen and Euro and neutral gold in dollar terms. Its comfortable between 1285 and 1315 and I doubt its going to break out anytime soon.


Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Stock market rally will not end anytime soon

We see nothing that can or should de-rail the protracted global bull market. It will end when it ends and it will end when trends lines are broken; it will end when a previous rally high fails to be taken out and a previous interim low is, instead, taken out to the downside.
Dennis Gartman

It will end when the last of the large number of very publicly bearish market watchers finally gives in, upends his/her bearish intuitions and turns, finally, bullish. 

It will end with the funds on the sidelines with large sums of cash on hand rather than investments made put all of those cash hoards to work, chasing performance. 

It will end in euphoria as all great bull markets end and at the moment there is nothing even modestly resembling euphoria in the markets. Rather there is disbelief in the integrity of the bull trend, with that disbelief fired by well- argued theory or theories that are intellectually brilliant, that make imminent good sense, that are readily embraced but which have been proven horribly wrong. 

When those theories are finally abandoned, the bull market shall end... and not a moment before.

We remain “pleasantly” long of the equities market, the middle path of our three possible paths that one can adopt in a bull market: Aggressively bullish; pleasantly bullish or neutral.


via Business Insider www.businessinsider.com/gartman-were-having-a-market-melt-up-2014-8

Monday, August 25, 2014

Stock market melt up and markets going higher

I think you're having a melt-up and not a meltdown and I think stock prices still want to go higher. The trend is up and all the smart guys I know keep trying to fade this thing, I've even tried to fade it at times and every time you do its been wrong. 

I think you are now in that period time when you are going to see interest rates beginning to rise and stock prices go higher.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

When to expect a US Recession...

"If you want to determine when a recession will be coming in the U.S., watch the ratio of initial unemployment claims to the total civilian labour force. When this ratio turns higher, a recession is not far behind. It is Not turning up now, so don’t worry."


via http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/08/18/Back-to-the-real-world-soon.aspx

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Gartman is bullish on Coal, cites Aluminium call from past

Aluminum shares have been one of the leaders on the S&P for the past 10 months. I feel the same way about coal.

Coal is still going to supply 41 percent of the United States electricity generation and 43 percent of the world's electricity production. If you look at that sort of thing and think that you're going to expect or going to get continued global economic growth  and I think that you are—then one of the cheapest entities out there has to be coal.

It is a long-term leap on continued economic growth. Buy four or five of them. Two of them probably will go out of business. Two of them will probably double or triple, and one of them may be a 10-bagger after all the smoke clears. That's probably what will end up happening.



Friday, August 15, 2014

Buy Brent sell WTI..

You have Libya who has been a very large supplier of crude oil to the world—at one point I think over 1.5 million barrels per day—now down at times to less than 200,000, and actually at times producing nothing, and that's a problem.

I think you're going to start seeing Brent, eventually, in the next five to six months, trading at what is more normal, parity to the WTI contract. So even though you have problems in Libya, I think one buys Brent and one sells WTI.


VIA CNBC Fast Money

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Gold shall go higher in Euro terms

Regarding gold, of course it is strong: War is in the air and when war is in the air gold goes bid. What else can gold do? Capital is fleeing to the safe corners of the world, and when that happens it flees to gold. So we begin our discussion this morning noting this simple fact.

We note secondly that this shall be an important day for gold and for gold's future, for whoever or whatever has been the seller of gold on Fridays in recent days, weeks, and months cannot allow gold to trade upward through $1,325 and certainly it cannot allow gold to trade upward through $1,350 for that would send an inflationary fright through all other markets in all other places.

Hence -- and let's call this group The Force -- The Force will have to work very hard today to defend its authority. The question shall be: Will it?

The Force has already lost one very important battle: it has lost the battle at E975/oz., with gold trading now at or near E982 and with the truly psychologically and technically important E1,000/oz. level only just a bit ahead.

Once E1,000 is taken out -- and we think that it shall be, if not today, then next week if the geopolitical events unwind as badly as we fear they might -- then there is nothing that stems the advance until E1,100, noting that the peak for gold in euro terms was E1,350 back in late 2012.



http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1407511800.php

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Market psychology dictates short term prices

Nothing fundamentally has changed [recently]. The psychologically has changed. That's all. People have to understand that markets get driven by fundamentals in the broad term and they get driven by psychological's in the short term. The psychology simply changes and that's all that's happened here.

Has the Economy suddenly changed overnight to manifest in a sharp decline in stock prices.. No....never happens that way. Its just the psychology that changes, you have margin accounts that were terribly high, probably the highest level, aggressively extended as they have been in many many years and that sort of things happen. Risk happens fast, economic activities change much much slower.

Monday, August 4, 2014

We are going to 1860 on markets

S&P500 - 1 Year Chart
We're going to see the S&P make its way down close to 1860 or 1875 or so. That will simply take us back to major trend lines. I see nothing wrong with what's happened. The bull market hasn't ended.... Capital that had gone into stocks maybe going into plant equipment and inventory. 

Friday, August 1, 2014

Gartman: Why bean and corn prices are falling

The weather continues to be only just the slightest bit less than absolutely perfect all across the Midwest as the corn pollinates and as the beans set pods. We are witnessing truly record and truly gargantuan crops.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Aluminium, zinc, tin, copper together gives an accurate picture of the world economy

You know, you always hear people say that copper is the commodity with a Ph.D. in economics, I've always said, really, it's got a master's degree. 

When you look at aluminum, zinc, tin and copper combined then it gives you an idea of what's going on in the global economy and aluminum, zinc and tin are very strong.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Buy the 30 year and short the 10 year

Money is moving away from Europe and its moving to the United States, and it's going to park itself into debt securities.

In a bull move, you want to own the Bond market. You want own the 30 year. You want to be short the 10 years. You wanna own the Back end of the curve, you want to be short Front end of the curve. 

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Dennis Gartman thinks Market Top could be near

Is the market really healthy when an IPO with the name EL Pollo Loco - the Crazy Chicken is a blow-out success and trades to a swift premium immediately

It reminds me so much of the late 1990's when you had goofy names, and its a wonderful company and they make great product so lets give them congratulations. But a lot of the market depends of the psychology and this just reminds of me so much of the furor, the frenzy that prevailed in the late 90's and early part of the century. Be careful.

If you want to look at chicken and have to be involved in the chicken market, go look in the Tyson's rather than Crazy Chicken.

Aluminium demand to grow says Dennis Gartman

Everyone laughed at me when I started buying aluminum nine months ago. 

You are going to see a larger off take of aluminum going into automobile production. It's the easiest way to meet EPA requirements for mileage is to make the automobiles and trucks lighter, and aluminum does that relative to steel and you're going to be selling, we're going to be selling, everybody's going to be selling a lot of automobiles for the Chinese.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Dennis says Gold prices has held its support

We caution everyone to be aware of the fact that although there shall be a great deal of conversation in the media about gold’s weakness it is worthy of not that gold even in US dollar terms has held its lows for the past full year and that the low made nine weeks ago was above the lows made in December of last year.

Interim lows have held at progressively higher levels. The psychology of the market may seem bearish, but the price action in broad terms is not.


via - http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/us-gold-bullion-rises-as-stocks-consolidate-78992/

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Gold rallies on Ukraine-Russia problem

Gold rallies on geopolitical problems, but those gains are all too often given up rather swiftly.

Monday, July 21, 2014

People are shooting first, asking questions later [VIDEO]



Dennis Gartman comments on the markets reaction to the Malaysian Air tragedy.


Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Dennis Gartman is optimistic USA over next 5 years

I think we're going to have a great five years. I think we're going to be surprised at how strong the U.S. economy is going to be, and even how strong the global economy is going to be.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Dennis Gartman of Fed policies and QE

Although there are ‘hawks’ voicing concerns about inflation and the lack of economic response to QE and calling for sooner-rather-than-later moves to tighten monetary policy, the fact of the matter is this Fed shall err expansionary and shall refrain from tightening rates for a very long while into the future. 


- VIA: http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/us-gold-open-comex-climbs-as-cracks-europes-banking-system-re-emerge-78062/

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Dennis Gartman vs Peter Schiff

Peter's talking about the fact that the United States is going to continue to destroy the U.S. dollar. But we also had the ECB come out and tell us last week that it will, in fact, be expanding reserves. I think you're better off being long of gold in euro terms than you are being long of gold in dollar terms for the foreseeable future.

via CNBC

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Dennis Gartman still long Acoa and Apple stocks

I am on the sidelines, I am neutral. I am long of Alcoa, long of Apple. I've written calls against them, I have some derivatives to bring that net position back to almost net neutrality. But I'm still long of Alcoa and long of Apple and its still a bull market. 

via CNBC interview

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Gartman calls for mild correction in markets

There are times when its wiser to be a bit moderate in ones approach and I think this is that time. I don't think you are going to get much of a correction, I don't think it will be much at all. This is a time to be net-neutral. Its time to be less long. 

Its more of a psychology call. I'm a little concerned that we got a little buoyant on the upside. Markets do get a bit ahead of themselves and that's all we gotten here. I saw some numbers, I was amused and interested in the fact, how much money was made in the first 4 or 5 days of the month and seasonally how bad things tend to get from middle of July to September on a historical basis. 

There are a number of things that made me say "probably a good time to go on the sidelines."



Watch the full interview below 


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101817271

Monday, July 7, 2014

Dennis Gartman: Deflation in agriculture coming

Dennis Gartman feels that Deflation is coming to Agriculture and this could in turn benefit the major Food producers whose input costs are going to go down. 

"I think with the size of the crops, it is going to be a huge corn crop. It's going to be a huge soybean crop. It's going to be a reasonably large wheat crop. If you are a company whose major input costs are grains, you're going to have a great year. So I think you take a look at the Kellogg's of the world, the General Mills of the world. I think you take a look at the companies, live stock producers whose input costs are going to be declining. Deflation in agriculture is going to be a real harsh reality and its going to be beneficial to companies for those companies that use corn, soy beans, wheat as their major inputs."

Gartman thinks the companies are not going to reduce their prices and that will benefit their stock prices.
"They're going to keep their price increases in effect, but their input costs are going to go down. Therein lies an increase in their margins over the course of the next year"


Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Bullish Gold in non dollar currency

Gold Shares tend to be a leader of the market. Gold shares have historically led the move higher or lower and gold stocks have been doing quite well over the course of past several weeks. So anybody who has been bearish gold finds themselves for the first time in many months on the wrong side of the trade. 




Monday, June 30, 2014

Gold holding up well

The quarter is now ending and gold shares have performed quite admirably during that period while gold itself has gone nowhere. Thus there shall be no rush of window dressing in either direction as the quarter ends, for no one needs to show either a bullish or a bearish bias. The quarter then should go out with a whimper rather than a bang of any sort.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

"Perfect Storm" is why Gold rose last week

Dennis Gartman
We had what appears to have been a ‘perfect storm’ of buying as the market was finally reacting to the comments from [Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet] Yellen the day previous; was reacting to the continued problems in Iraq and was reacting too to the US dollar’s weakness yesterday.

That should have been enough Wednesday afternoon to touch off buying, but it took further strength in crude oil prices and an expansion of the problems in Iraq to set the stage for the perfect storm


VIA http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/us-gold-open-comex-shines-amid-perfect-storm-77132

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Gartman on Platnium and South African miners strike

We were often queried in the course of the past several weeks why it was that we were not involved in the bull rush in both platinum and palladium and our stock response was that we’d no idea when the strike [South African platinum miners strike]  would end but we knew that eventually it would and that when it ended platinum and palladium prices would collapse. 

Never, however, did we think that platinum would fall $50 or more in the course of several hours; we simply knew the downside would be swift and violent. It was. It may get worse.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Why Oil and Gold is strong at the moment

Crude oil prices are holding their massive gains of late last week and gold is strong as the fears grow that the situation in the Middle East shall only worsen. 

This weighs upon Europe far more than it weighs upon the US for Europe is obviously more dependent upon Middle Eastern crude oil supplies than is the steadily more energy independent US


via www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/us-gold-price-iraq-instability-ushers-fresh-safe-haven-demand-76833

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Dennis Gartman likes Aluminum for a Global economic upturn

"I'm going with the very simple things incumbent in long-term economic growth and I still think this is a global economic upturn. So buy Aluminum, its making new highs, its been working."

"They laughed at me last year back in October last year when I wanted to buy aluminum. I continue to buy aluminum; I bought more aluminum today; and aluminum stocks made new highs on the close."

via CNBC

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Corn and Bean crops having wonderful start

For the corn and soybean crops, both are clearly off to great starts. The corn rating is the fifth-best in history while the bean crop’s rating is the best ever.

via Bloomberg

Gartman moving to oil sidelines

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

How Gartman would play a bullish China

The way to play China not blowing up is probably be long Australia and Australian Dollar. 
A highway in China


China gets terribly confusing to me. I don't invest in China, I don't want to own anything in China, I don't think I understand their accounting principles in China. 

On balance the Australian economy, the New Zealand economy sitting right there being the major supplier of goods and services to China and shall be for a long period of time. That's a better trade for me, that's easier for me. I am an old dog, I'll go with the old tricks, don't teach me new tricks.


via CNBC Interview

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Continue to be a China bull

What people need to understand and very smart people have been calling about the demise of China for the past two and a half decades. They have been consistently and completely wrong. 

China's population is leaping from the 14th century to the 22nd century, bypassing the 21st century. And they are not going back.  Yes there's a lot of housing that's probably over built. But on balance thats going to be taken up.

On balance, China is moving from the lower left to the upper right on the charts. The economy is moving stronger. So if that makes me a China bull, I've been one for a long time—I will continue to be one.


Monday, June 9, 2014

ECB fears deflation

The central bank has made it rather clear that its fears regarding deflation in Europe are real; that its concerns regarding the ill economic circumstances are substantive and that material new programs are likely.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Gold support broken

Gold is breaking down, it just looks horrible. There was a five-month-long consolidation that set up in the gold market. And those kind of long term consolidations usually resolve themselves in the direction that prevailed previously. In this instance, gold has broken, it consolidated, and now it's broken again. It's taken out all support.


Originally published www.cnbc.com/id/101565276 on May 27, 2014 

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Market wants to go higher

There's plenty of money out there, there's a lot of liquidity, the Fed is still there … enough to take up the stock market. The market will stop when it stops, not a moment before. It continues to want to go higher.

Monday, June 2, 2014

Bond yields to go higher

The bond market is going up, yields are going up, it's caused a great deal of confusion to people. As long as stocks continue to go up, you may continue to see portfolios, endowments, and pension funds continue to be a liquidator of the stock market and a buyer of the bond market.


via - http://www.cnbc.com/id/101716014


Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Dennis Gartman quietly bullish

Having called for a correction, I have been abundantly wrong. A correction is typically defined as a market downturn of 10 percent or more. I am probably going to be wrong continuing to expect one. It's best to err on the side of remaining quietly bullish. 

People have been calling for corrections for the past five years and the corrections don't seem to occur. Every time you think you're about to have a correction, you get a one or two or three percent lower and then you move to new highs.



Via - Dennis Gartman on CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/101705149

Monday, May 26, 2014

Dennis Gartman does not like Bitcoin

I will avoid bitcoin like the plague. Never, I would never own it. It is the harbor of thieves and drug dealers and I shall leave that to others.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Dennis Gartman on picking stock market Bottoms and when to buy

If you did, you just got bloody lucky. But there will be times when you get panic selloffs that my propensity then will be say, 'I shall begin to buy some. If it works I'll buy more.


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101692211

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Markets in correction, more selling possible

I think the [market correction] process began several weeks ago [with] the Nasdaq. We're in a correction right now.

There's more selling to come. There's judicious selling to come.

via  CNBC Squawk Box Interview

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Gartman not worried about China

I think the base metals are telling you the world itself is going to do better.

Nickel is strong. Copper is strong. Tin is strong. Aluminum is strong. All of them are pointing upward. I think there is more going on here than merely a hope that China is going to do better. China is going to do fine.




Via  http://www.cnbc.com/id/101665846

Thursday, May 8, 2014

How US can retaliate against Russia

"I think that what government in the United States needs to do is take the only weapon that it has, which is crude oil. And a sizable chunk of that crude oil is tied up in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If I were the president of the United States, knowing that the only weapon that I have—I can't do any further sanctioning, Germany and France won't agree with it, Belgium won't agree with it—I'd release crude oil from the SPR."

"That would do a lot of damage to Russia. That would do a lot of benefit to 
consumers everywhere, especially with an election coming up."


Article via CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/101647330

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Buy Gold, sell crude oil trade idea

"Perhaps what one might want to do [is] buy gold and sell crude oil against it. That might be the next big trade."

On Gold and why it could go higher
"I think Friday's activity was very important. You made a new low, then you rallied very hard—an outside reversal day as the technicians say—and as long as that outside reversal holds, you have to use any period of weakness to be a buyer."

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Gartman goes neutral the markets and recent market volatility

"I do not like switching back and forth. It's not fun. I would rather be consistently bullish. It's still a bull market and the worst that I'll become is neutral of stocks."



Dennis Gartman goes neutral the markets. And explains to CNBC on why recent market volatility has affected his opinions on whether to be long, neutral or negative. 

Video from April 28, 2014 via CNBC

Monday, April 28, 2014

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Gartman on Gold and Barrick, Newmont merger



Dennis Gartman video above where he explains why he is pleasantly long on Gold and why he thinks Gold in dollar terms may have bottomed few months ago.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Dennis Gartman not scared anymore

Two and a half weeks ago I became very scared and went to neutral, no question, absolutely, I did. 

But after a good two weeks' decline, after 50 big handles in the S&P, after barely going through but holding the 100-day moving average, you have to understand: it's still a bull market. So it's back to being pleasantly long again. Last week I said it's time to be buyers of equities again generally. 

If we change again any time soon it shall be to increase our exposure to equities, rather than to decrease it.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Dennis Gartman on High Frequency trading

I'm going to get in trouble for saying this, but I'm a believer in high-frequency trading. You can't believe how many times people have attacked me on the Internet. It gets ugly."

I know what the price is on the exchange. The dark pool is not going to be manifestly different, if it's a penny different from what the exchange is. It's not going to be different at all.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Cash is not bad

"I've always told people there are three things you can do in a bull market," Gartman said. "You can be really really bullish. You can be pleasantly bullish, and you can be neutral. It's time for neutrality."

"I'm amused at people who say, 'You can't just hold cash.' Of course you can. If you held cash for the last year, you felt it, You lost money, or you were lagging well behind. But cash right now might not be such a bad place to be for the next month or two."


Via - CNBC.com


Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Dennis Gartman got scared last Friday

In a bull market there are only three positions you can have: Really long, pleasantly long and neutral. It's time to be neutral. It's still a bull market. You don't need to be short, but you don't need to be long at this point. I think cash is the right place to be.

The changes [in stock prices from last Friday] were material enough and important enough to mandate that action be taken to reduce our exposure to everything we have on, save for positions in gold. "The whole world switched at that period of time.


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101561878

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Gartman buyer of China

Dennis Gartman is bullish on U.S. equities because he believes the stock market is consolidating since about 1.5 months near current levels. 

Gartman added that U.S. stocks seem likely to break out to the upside. If being forced to choose, he would rather be a buyer of copper than a seller. 

He is also a buyer of Chinese equities via exchange-traded funds.


Article via http://www.thestreet.com/story/12538764/1/fast-money-recap-the-value-of-old-tech-stocks.html

Monday, March 31, 2014

Continuing holding Gold in yen and euro terms

Prisoners were not taken yesterday as gold, silver and platinum came under pressure, with only the ‘Russian sanctioned’ prospects for palladium keeping that metal firm. We, however, have no intention of changing our positions: we are long of gold in yen and euro terms and we shall remain that way.

Certainly we would prefer seeing gold trading better, but the fact that it has held the $1,300 level [and] well above its lows made months ago in yen terms, and has even held above the more recently lows made in euro terms, has impressed us and should impress others.


Via http://www.fastmarkets.com/north-america/73041-0-en

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Dennis Gartman on Russian war potential

Things are indeed growing disconcerting. They shall almost certainly grow worse and the West has underestimated the seriousness of Putin’s intent to restore the former Soviet ‘empire’ to one that is Russian.

See more at: http://www.fastmarkets.com/gold-news/72641-0-en#sthash.0LNQ9hVD.dpuf

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Gartman: Gold chart going higher quietly

Dennis Gartman thinks gold is going higher quietly in terms on Dollars, Yen, Euro and Chinese Renminbi.


"For the moment at least, the fear of war in Russia has been alleviated. But it's not eliminated. It's just been alleviated, and it was the fear of war that sent gold prices higher in the first place."

"Any incursion by the Russians into mainland Ukraine, while unlikely, but remotely possible, would send gold soaring. The chart is going from the lower left to the upper right."


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101504625

Monday, March 24, 2014

Dennis Gartman on Russia and Mr Putin

Dennis Gartman has an idea on how the US White House can counter Russia's Mr Putin:

The smartest thing they can do to counter what Mr. Putin is doing is to fight him on the one weapon he has, which is oil. 

You could send oil down sharply and do very real damage to the Russian economy.




via CNBC 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101518252

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Dennis Gartman on Doctor Copper

"We'll argue that Dr.Copper is not sending a signal to the world of impending economic weakness but is instead sending a signal to the world that the banking system in China has very real problems."

"We suspect that some banks have already called in their loans made in this manner, and that what we've seen in the past week is the first layer of that loan unwinding; however, there is no way to quantify that notion and we offer it up as it stands, without hard data. However, our fear is that the last banks in … the smaller banks; the regional banks; the banks that are always last to the feeding trough … are still holding copper collateralized loans that have gone from badly performing to horrid to now deeply under water in the matter of days. Panic liquidation has set in; the margin clerks are in charge and it is then that prices make their lows, but there is no way to tell when or where and at what prices those loans shall be finally liquidated."


story via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101488168

Monday, March 17, 2014

Dennis Gartman interview on Russia Today



Watch from minute 4:50 to hear Dennis Gartman interview with Erin of RT

Friday, March 14, 2014

Gartman on March 2014 Jobs report

Dennis Gartman on why the last jobs report in March 2014 is a non event:

"We draw only that weather was and is a huge effect upon the numbers and we suspect that the Fed shall pay little if any heed to these figures when they meet next week, casting them all off as weather affected and turning their attention to other concerns."


via - http://www.fastmarkets.com/gold-news/72298-0-en

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Gartman to cover Long Gold/Short Copper trade

Gold and the precious metals are weak, but they are demonstrably less weak than are the base metals, with copper leading the way lower. The economic news out of China has laid waste to copper prices.

We shall then move to cover our long gold/short copper trades upon receipt of this market given that copper traded just below the supposed obscene number of $3.00 earlier today but has since rebounded.


via http://www.fastmarkets.com/gold-news/72298-0-en

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Copper is weak, short or go to sidelines



Copper is weak. Watch the video above on copper trade, and potential for China to run trade deficits for several years.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Crop demand to beat expectations

Everybody knows there's going to be a big crop. Farmers like to plant corn. Three to four million acres of corn land should go into soybeans, but probably won't. I suspect the crop is going to be fairly good sized, but I think demand is going to be shockingly better than people anticipate. It's not making new lows. 

You learn in the business of trading that when something doesn't go down on bearish news, especially when something goes up on bearish news, you probably ought to be bullish on it.


http://www.midwestproducer.com/news/markets/market-forecaster-corn-soybeans-wheat-hogs-up-sharply/article_2cd96f76-a87c-11e3-8990-001a4bcf887a.html

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Gartman on Bitcoin's Mt Gox collapse

We have never been fans of Bitcoin, believing it to be nothing more than a scam of the first order and a breeding ground for drug dealing and tax evasion. 

We have pled with our clients around the world not to become involved with Bitcoin in any form or fashion, but even we are stunned by the announcement that the Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, has gone bankrupt... or soon will... proving once again our old adage that "There is never just one cockroach.”

Mt. Gox had delayed paying out trading profits and/or holdings of cash or of Bitcoins themselves in recent weeks, blaming problems on technical circumstances... upon “server” problems... or upon other technical irregularities. Now it is being reported that Mt. Gox has suffered the theft of several hundred thousand of its deposited Bitcoins and that the theft took place a year or more ago and is only now coming to light. 

Others are already trying to fill the void left by Mt.Gox’ demise, but we shall again urge caution and in most instances shall counsel utter and complete avoidance of all things Bitcoin related.

We fear that even if these other “exchanges” can take the place of Mt.Gox, the damage done by this company’s failure shall be a pox upon the entire enterprise. Avoid Bitcoin if you can, for even if these other exchanges succeed, we can only suspect that participation in Bitcoin speculation shall eventually call the IRS attention upon those involved even in a modest way, and no one needs that attention. A word to the hopefully wise!


via  http://www.businessinsider.com/gartman-mtgoxs-collapse-is-a-pox-on-bitcoin-2014-2

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Not expecting any major reductions of Fed accomodation

I don't see any major reduction in accommodation that the Fed is pushing into the system. We are far from tightening; we are still aggressively easing, with $65 billion still going into the system between each FOMC meeting. Yes, that's down from $85 billion, but still, those are massive injections of reserves into the system. 

The Bank of Japan is doing even more than the Fed. 

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Gold in yen terms down only 2 percent

Over the course of the last several years, as gold in dollars is down something like 35% from its high, gold in yen is down only 2%. I think that's interesting.

If you think that the monetary authorities in Europe are going to be tighter, are going to be more hawkish than are the monetary authorities in the United States, you probably would not want to own gold in euros. You probably want to own gold in terms of dollars or in terms of yen. If you think the monetary authorities in Japan are going to expand the supply of reserves of yen faster than the European central bank, or the Fed here, or the Bank of Canada, or the Bank of England, then you would want to own gold in yen-denominated terms.