Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Bill Gross departure wont affect Bond Markets much

The bond market was thrown into a state of confusion early Friday following the announcement of Mr. Gross' resignation, but we are talking here of the departure of one man from one fund, whose influence had been waning for quite some while as his asset base was falling. 

The bond market is collectively wise enough to accept Mr. Gross' departure from Pimco and 'get-on-with-it' without undue problems

That which gets sold in the coming weeks is probably to be bought and that which is bought should probably be sold as the bond market seeks 'in medias res' over any modest protracted period of time. 




VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102040474

Monday, September 29, 2014

Fear Deflation for now, not Inflation

I don't think there's any great need to own Gold in dollar terms. If you're fearful about inflation, you're wrong. Grain prices are down. Iron ore prices are down. Crude oil prices are down. Rubber prices are down. Owning Gold in non US Dollar terms however owning in Yen, Euro terms have been okay. You are down about 1 percent over the course of last two or three years. Where as if you owned Gold in dollar terms you're down like 35 percent

As I've said, I just went to North Carolina state, I didn't go to Harvard or Yale but even we know losing 1 percent is somewhat better than 35. 

I wish I had been short of Gold in Dollar terms. It would have been a brilliant trade. But I'm not that smart. I have wanted to own a bit of gold, just predicated in a different currency, so I'll leave it at that. I can understand why somebody might want to be short of gold. I wouldn't do it, not down here. Being short of Gold at at $1600, $1500, $1400, it probably wasn't a bad idea but here at $1200 I'll let someone else do it, I wont.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Dennis Gartman exits Alcoa position

It [Alcoa symbol AA] was one my biggest position since last October. I sold all my Alcoa, I am out, I am gone. 

Doesn't mean the company is bad. I think the company is still great. I have great expectations for Aluminium itself over the course of next several years. But I think the run in Alcoa has probably run its most of its fun for the past several months. 


via CNBC Interview on Sep 15, 2014

Monday, September 22, 2014

Time to be quietly bullish Crude oil

I was a seller of crude oil and I've been a seller of crude oil for a long time.

Whats interesting is specially with relatively bearish news with increased sanctions on Russians which should have been deleterious to crude oil prices and with a less than impressive industrial production number out of China that should have put crude oil prices lower, however by end of the day crude oil ended up higher. That's very impressive. When the market turns after a protracted decline you have to pay attention. 

I think from here on on one wants to err on the side of quietly bullish of the Crude Oil market. 


via CNBC Interview on Sept 15, 2014

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Dennis Gartman calls a start in US Dollar bull market

Everybody wants to be a bull of Gold in dollar terms and it just wears you out. It is a bull market in the dollar. And in that environment a strong dollar is always going to put downward pressure on commodities and is specially worrisome for those who are bullish of Gold. [Gold in Euro and Yen terms] it's actually quite strong. Gold is nothing other than a currency

US Dollar strong uptrend last few months
[The US Dollar] I think we are only in inning two of what could be a 10-inning baseball game. I think we just started a bull market in the dollar.



VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/101993909

Monday, September 15, 2014

Crude oil reversal to upside important

The fact that crude oil made a low amidst enormous bearish news and reversed to the upside. That's very impressive. I pay attention to reversals such as reversals we had in Crude Oil. That might have been an important low.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Cold weather could boost corn prices

There is one very real concern: the possibility suddenly of an early frost. Should temperatures drop toward freezing, corn prices might indeed shoot rather markedly higher, for the crop is vulnerable to frost at this point.


via http://www.agweb.com/article/corn_rebounds_as_cooler_us_temperatures_raise_frost_concern_BLMG/

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

ECB monetary policy has become more expansionary

Make no mistake about it: the ECB has become expansionary and this is but the first step in its doing so.

Just as few, other than we, thought that the Fed would have QE 2 and QE 3 following the first round of QE, we suspect that few will argue that this first round of QE on the part of the ECB shall result in larger and more such operations in the future, but we do and we are.

That is what is important to understand here beyond minutia: this is the first shot across the monetary bow in Europe by the ECB and it shall not be the last.

Remember this statement in the days, weeks, months and perhaps even the years ahead. The ECB has, in the most common language, lost its monetary virginity and once lost it cannot ever be regained.


via http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-05/dennis-gartman-short-power-control-terms

Friday, September 5, 2014

Concerned by market response recently

What bothers me is I've been bullish stocks for a while and I really was dismayed by stock markets around the world responded to the ECB's decision yesterday. 

In the States we opened up strongly, higher, finished the day lower, you should never see that sort of activity and that causes me a great great deal of concern. I've been very bullish of stocks, perhaps it's time not to be quite so bullish.


via http://www.cnbc.com/id/101973990

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Dennis Gartman on Germany sanctions on

Russia’s further incursions into eastern Ukraine create enormous problems for Europe, and especially for Germany, for there is no choice now but to increase rather than decrease the sanctions in place against the Russian, the impact of which shall hardly be felt by the US but shall egregiously be felt by the Germans and the French.

[French President] Hollande and [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel are already in difficult political straits; those straits are becoming more dire by the hour. We do not envy their positions even slightly,” Gartman added.

via Fastmarkets

Stocks melting up and will go higher [VIDEO]

We are in-fact melting highs and making new highs and we will continue to make new highs. Bull market is intact.






I have been bullish on gold for almost two years in terms of Yen and I've been bullish for the last six or seven months in terms of Euro. 

I'm really quite bullish on gold in terms of Yen and Euro and neutral gold in dollar terms. Its comfortable between 1285 and 1315 and I doubt its going to break out anytime soon.