Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Bull market continues on

Its still a bull market. Prices are still moving from the lower left to the upper right. 

Anyone that has tried to fade it... it has proven to be an ill advised decision, and weakness is to be bought, strength is not to be sold. I've even tried every once in a while to sell it and its just been silly, its just been abjectly stupid. The trend is still a bull market so why fight it. 

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Gold in Yen still going strong

I've been bullish on gold for two and half years but not in terms of US Dollars but in Yen terms. 

Long Gold, Short Yen has been a great trade. Long Gold in dollar terms has been a horrifying trade. I have no opinion of Gold in terms of dollar terms. I have a very strong opinion of Gold in terms of Yen.



Monday, December 29, 2014

Crude Oil may be close to a bottom


I have been very bearish for a long period of time because of the manner the term structure has been moving. But all of a sudden in the past few days, the term structure is beginning to move in the other direction. 

I think the time for being overtly bearish of crude oil has probably passed. I think the time for being bullish of crude oil lies a long way into the future. 

I'd like to think that Crude Oil will stabilize down here. I cant imagine people are going to go out and rush to buy a new house predicated upon the fact that crude oil prices and Gasoline prices have fallen, but I bet they would go out and buy more a bit more as far as Christmas presents are concerned. 

I doubt we will see a great deal lower on crude oil prices from here. The vast majority of the move is behind us... thankfully. 



VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102285754 on Dec 19, 2014

Monday, December 22, 2014

Crude oil to continue sliding lower

Crude oil has this terrible, hysterical tendency of falling 75, 80 and 90 percent in value. Can it go down farther from here? Absolutely.

Until the front months stop leading the way down, crude still wants to go lower.


Energy Efficiency

We get so much more GDP per barrel of crude oil now than we did in the past. Every one of our automobiles gets better gas mileage than they did in the past. We heat our houses with less fuel than we did in the past.

Everybody is depressed because crude is collapsing and you are just getting baby and bathwater being tossed out all at one time. That will end in the not-too-distant future

Friday, December 19, 2014

Benefits of lower gas to show up

The American public will respond to the decline in gasoline prices very soon. Expect them to their restaurants more often, expect Christmas to be stronger than we thought.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Gartman on Russian Rouble moves against dollar

In our forty years of trading in, watching and commenting upon the forex markets we have truly never seen anything such as what we’ve seen in Moscow in the past two sessions.

As the rouble collapses, so too the Russian stock market, and the sums of capital/net worth being destroyed are stunning. The world’s net worth is imploding and our concerns about things generally are rising. This is an event triggering very real global concerns, and if it has not yet it will – mark our words.

We are convinced that the defence of the rouble is indeed indefensible, although the Russian central bank has several hundred billion dollars still in reserve with which to buy rouble and to sell dollars.

We shall strongly suggest watching what happens should the rouble/dollar rate trade upward again today to 72, the dollar’s intra-day high. If it does, amidst massive bank dollar selling the game shall rush swiftly and violently against the bank. It will be tested and we fear the bank will lose,

Monday, December 8, 2014

Dennis Gartman thinks ECB will loosen monetary policy eventually

The ECB has not moved at all. It has not moved to tighten monetary policy, nor has it moved to ease. It has done nothing… nothing at all, and it has done nothing with a great deal of fanfare.

Between [Mario] Draghi on one side and the Germans on the other, with Draghi pushing for a much more aggressively easier policy while the Germans fight for monetary austerity. Eventually, Draghi will win this debate, and indeed he must, for the very existence of the monetary union depends upon an end to German austerity that has begotten double-digit unemployment rates across so much of the continent and has kept them at double-digit rates.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Swiss voters reject Gold vote

We thought it would indeed go down to defeat, for the Swiss National Bank’s authorities were openly antagonistic toward the initiative as were most political authorities, but we never thought it would be defeated so soundly.

Given the huge nature of the ‘no’ votes, we suspect it shall be a very, very long while; years certainly; a decade or more perhaps… before this sort of initiative is put before the Swiss votes again,


Monday, December 1, 2014

Buying Gold in Yen terms could be a smart trade

Sell Yen and buy Gold, that's probably the real trade to look at. Gold in Yen terms could be dramatically 50 percent higher two years from now simply because the yen is going to get so weak.