Thursday, January 29, 2015

Lower oil prices will benefit farmers

In my lifetime, we will never see $75 crude oil ever again. Not ever, not no-how. Take a look at the futures markets in oil. The back months are now $15 above the spot month. It's called a contango. That's profitable for frackers. Not only that, we're seeing people taking delivery of crude oil because you can make money buying it, selling forward futures and redelivering it when you have a contango. Crude oil is bidding for storage

You hear people say $45 crude will stop fracking. But, two years out, futures are at 60 dollars. Any bank will lend money hedged at $60 a barrel. I think we might have a chance to think $1.85 gasoline looks expensive. 

It means cheap fertilizer. It makes for very cheap nitrogen supplies. That's going to be wonderful for you guys in the business of growing crops. It will help overcome the fact that grain prices, I don't think, are going anywhere.