THE S&P IN MONTHLY TERMS: Trend Line Support, We Fear, Is A Very Long Way Down: This is a sobering thought, but this chart… which we included in our commentary yesterday… should give everyone a case of very real concern for support for the S&P is several hundred points below where the market closed on Friday. Strength is to be sold into.
Repeating from yesterday’s commentary…which we are doing here this morning because such a large number of our readers are here in the US and Canada and likely did not see yesterday’s comments… we ask the simple question: How far down do we expect this bear market to run? Our answer is that we can imagine that the S&P might make its way all the way down toward 1600 which would simply take the market back to the trend line going back all the way to the “generational” lows in ’09. That would be nearly a 25% correction from the highs made earlier this year and within the great scheme of bear markets past this would be quite normal and would certainly not be anything out of the ordinary.
We remain here at TGL (The Gartman Letter) modestly net short of the market generally and we’ve no intention of changing that focus other than to become a bit shorter still as time and market conditions demand.
There is no discrimination in bear markets. They are “equal opportunity” destroyers.