SHARE PRICES HAVE FALLEN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY, as seven of the ten markets comprising our International Index have fallen while only three have risen and of the seven that have fallen five have fallen by more than 1% with the European markets leading the way lower. For the year-to-date, stocks in global terms are now down 512 “points” on our Index or 5.2%, while stocks here in the US are down a much less severe but still nonetheless important 1.8%. Interestingly, stocks in “Asia” have tended to lead the way lower for most of the year, with the market Sydney down 9.3%, or with stocks in Hong Kong down 9.6%... and let’s not forget the weakness in Brazil, where that market is down 10.5%. So, just as some here in the US say that this is not a stock market but a market of stocks, we say that global investing is not a global market but may be a market of specific spots around the globe.
That said, we are very gravely concerned about the validity of a bull market and the harsh reality of a bear market in global terms, for one after another after another of the various markets around the world is breaking upward sloping trend lines; has topped out well below previous highs and is making new and lower lows. This we find disconcerting and this we find worthy of note. It is time once again to seek the safety of the sidelines. This is not the time to be aggressively bullish of equities but rather this is the time for… as we say here in the South… “hunkering down,” for getting smaller, for curtailing exposure.