Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Oil prices to stay below $50

I wouldn't be surprised if we stabilized between the low $40's and the very low $50's for a long period of time.

The Iranians are surprising everybody by how swiftly they had been able to ramp up production. They're almost back to the levels of pre-sanctions, and they're going to get past those levels very soon.

The Saudis have made it abundantly clear that they intend to increase production because they see their own crude oil as a wasting asset that will basically be worthless in 25 years. They're going to be selling it as quickly as they can to get what money they can right now.

In the U.S., anything above $45-50 for spot WTI with a decent contango on the one-year and two-year forward curve gives you a very profitable level for almost any kind of fracker in any reasonable territory in the Bakken or in the Permian to produce.

You've also got 25-35 tankers filled with crude sitting just outside Singapore that’ll come to the market at any time. Is the oversupply over? No, it's going to get much worse. On balance, it's going to be very hard to push crude oil much above $50.