Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Rise in part time jobs and decrease in Full Time work across North America

The hourly age wage increase was decent, there's no question is we are seeing stronger employment numbers here in the States. We have to remember however, there are two things that need to be discussed. 

One is that a great good deal of  this increase was because of this birth death adjustment which added about payroll jobs to the number. And something that very few people are paying attention is that across North America if we include what happened in Canada, and in Canada the expectation was about 10,000 jobs to be added to the Canadian payrolls and in fact 10,000 jobs were taken away and worse the interior numbers in Canada showed that a large number of part time jobs were increased and the number of full time jobs were decreased, plus the fact that there was a huge number of people that called themselves "Self Employed" which I take it be an indication that a number of people were laid off and were too proud to call themselves laid off and so called themselves Self Employed. 

So across all of North America including Canada and US the employment number was demonstrably less stronger than it first appeared. Yes I think there will be an increase in the Fed Funds rate sometime this year but perhaps just once at most and probably in September long before the elections in November. The Fed does not like to increase rates in December.