Sunday, October 16, 2016

Hillary Clinton victory would mean Washington gridlock and its a positive for stock markets


If you’d asked me a week ago what the election impact will be on the capital markets generally, I would have said it's clear that Mrs. Clinton is likely going to win the presidency. At the same time, the Senate and the House were probably going to remain in the hands of the Republicans. Then we would have the best of all governments—we would have utter and complete and total gridlock. Markets like gridlock, because government can't do anything to you; they can't hurt you.

Now, however, with the virtual collapse of Mr. Trump's campaign over the course of the past week, I fear the Senate may actually be taken over by the Democrats.

It's also somewhat possible—maybe only a 20% probability—that the Republicans may even lose the House. If that were to occur, if we were to get a Democratic president, a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House, that would be terribly bearish for stock prices.