Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The losers in a Trump presidency


The losers are very conservative, fiscally conscious Republicans.

There is an old-line of thinking: “Only Nixon could go to China.” In other words, you had to be a hard right-wing conservative to open up Communist China; it was the only way people would accept it. The same phenomenon could happen here: Only a quasi-Republican could throw over the bounds of fiscal austerity and say, “let’s spend money.”

Watch what happens: Trump’s going to embrace Bernie Sanders. It will stun everyone, but that’s what’s going to happen. Sanders will get on board; Democrats will get on board; most moderate and liberal Republicans will have no choice but to get on board.

Honestly, he’s going to out-Keynes Keynes. And the loser, when that happens—to answer your question—is the bond market.