Monday, April 24, 2017

I want to buy Steel and Infrastructure stocks

Businesses in the US are actually doing well. If you get out of New York, if you go to Virginia Beach, if you go to Sacramento, if you go to Cleveland, they are Help Wanted signs everywhere. business are actually doing better at the base. And I think that's whats going on with the Stock Market more than anything else. 

Is it surprising to me ? Yes
Do I think share prices overvalued ? Yes. 
Are Price to Earnings multiples extended to the upside ? Yes.

What to buy ?
I am an old guy, I like simple things in infrastructure and economic growth. Get me steel, I want to own ball bearing manufacturers, cements, I want to own simple things.

Why ?
We are still building houses, we are still building roads, bridges. We are still going to make things. We still need steel, ball bearings, cements. We shall for the next 500 years.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Going against the trend will cost you your money

It's still a long term bull market. You should still err on the side of being bullish. Cash at one point should be a wonderful thing to have, but not yet. And there are times when I have gone to cash. Every time I had done it, I wish I had not.

We may all find stock prices overpriced and by Price to Earnings multiple they are infact. But nonetheless if you fight the trend it will cost you money. I find it difficult to buy stuff, but you have no choice.

via cnbc

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Chinese are not manipulating their currency as Trump alleges


The President is absolutely wrong. The Chinese are not manipulating their currency downward. If they've done anything, and I've argued this for months and months, the Chinese have been supporting their currency instead.

If they are manipulating to weaken their currency, they're doing it 180 degrees in the wrong direction and somehow I don't believe that the Chinese are illogical and that silly when it comes to foreign exchange. They are not currency manipulators as the President would have us believe.

What I find interesting is everybody is concerned about the fact that China hold so much of our paper. Let me think, what a great trade, we buy goods from them, we give them paper. That's a great trade in my opinion and I think we are on the stronger side of the question. 


via cnbc

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Dennis Gartman trading tip - Nothing wrong to be wrong but.....

The most important thing in the world of trading and investing is to not become married to a position. Defending a bad trade is the only thing that shall take you out of this business. There is nothing at all wrong with being wrong, but there is everything wrong with staying wrong.

Monday, April 3, 2017

CNN Fear & Green Index fell to 29 recently

STOCK PRICES… EVERYWHERE… ARE HIGHER AND SHARPLY SO as all ten of the markets in our International Index have risen. This is a rare event and historically such unanimity amongst our “universe” of markets has marked important panic tops if this has happened after extended bull runs, or has marked important panic lows at the end of extended bear runs. Certainly this is not the latter. We obviously have considered the markets overextended to the upside and have been reticent about buying into them aggressively. As we said the other evening when on CNBC’s “Fast Money,” and as we’ve said countless times here in TGL, this is a bull market and in a bull market one can have only one of three possible positions: Very, aggressively long of equities on balance; pleasantly long of equities on balance or, finally, neutral of equities, and there is no question but that we’ve tended to err upon the latter two positions and “Err” is the proper word here for we have indeed erred.

Those who’ve thrown caution to the investment wind and have remained aggressively long have reaped their rewards and we applaud them for either their tenacity, or their brilliance or their obeisance to the trend. We have been “too cute by half” in fearing a correction that never seems to avail itself.

Given the recent weakness in the CNN Fear & Greed Index we were coming very close to buying equities aggressively, if only had this Index fallen to 20 or below, having been to 85 only a few months ago. It fell to 29 .....… close to 20 but not quite there. It has turned up from there. If that was this indicator’s low it shall be the fifth time in a row that it has made a progressively higher low since late ’14. Previously, going back to late ’14, the lows were very near to 0; then 5 in the autumn of ‘15; then 15 in the first few days of ’16; then 15 in the late autumn of last year and now 29.

We have no choice but to follow the “lead” from the CNN Fear & Greed Index and to be bullish of equities. To make it simple we shall return to our original thesis regarding the Trump Adminisration and defer to the “Mahoning Valley” rather than to Silicon Valley; that is, we’ll buy steel, and coal, and ships, and railroads and ball bearings and cement and weaponry et al, for if the Trump Administration does stand for anything it stands of infrastructure and defense. These things we can count and these things we can count upon. These things are simple being the things that if dropped on your foot shall hurt.