Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Gartman bullish on Technology

"We stand in awe of the sheer relentless nature of the global bull market. Unlike the parabolic rise by Bitcoin, for example, the trend from the lower left to the upper right in global equity prices is measured… is reasonable… is relentless and is, in the end, majestic in nature. It will stop when it stops and not a moment before. Every time we think that the market is overbought, it consolidates and moves higher.

It is interesting then to note that the CNN Fear & Greed Index has been “locked” in recent days a few points either side of 50, where 50 is evenly balanced between the bullish and bearish forces at work. When the Index is below 20 and has turned higher, the market is oversold and due for a rally. When it is above 75 or so and turns down, the market’s over-bought and due for weakness. But at 50 it is neutral… utterly and completely… allowing the trend at hand to obtain a while longer and the trend at hand is clearly a bullish trend.

In retrospect we allowed our prosaic, old-guard beliefs in simple things to color our view of the markets; that is, we have tended to err, even when bullish of stocks, to own metals, trains, boats, bearings et al. As always, we’ve wanted to own them when instead we should have understood the disruptive nature of modern technology and should have been buying the things that are either replacing these simple things or are making these simple things better.

We shall never be able to step into the pharmaceutical equities for we are not able, nor willing, to make implied bets upon whether a drug in place shall meet FDA approvals or not. We’ve not that expertise, nor shall we ever have it. However, we should be able to ascertain what companies will make mining better; what companies will help run railroads run more efficiently; what high-tech companies will replace crews on ships with autonomy et al. That we have to do; that we shall do. The game has changed and so must we."


via ZH

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Snapchat not worth investing in


Is there anything in the investment world less investable than SNAP?

This is a company losing millions of dollars/month, whose product is the ability to create funny pictures of friends that can be sent via the net and messages that disappear soon after having been transmitted.

This is utter nonsense. This is not a business; this is a time sapping hobby; a diversion; a silly little waste of aggregated time that could be spent “profitably” but which is spent stupidly instead.

Although we know that teenagers… and adults who think of themselves as teenagers… love this silly little “app,” but it is simply an app… and a silly one at that.

Is anyone with a rational investment horizon and a sense of history of investments surprised by the fact that since having gone public at $24/share SNAP’s shares have gone at best sideways and last evening fell nearly 30% on disappointing sales and “eye-ball” counts.

Again, as Herb Stein said, that which cannot continue won’t. SNAP, snapped and the investment world is a bit better place for its having done so. We trust we are clear.

Monday, May 8, 2017

Be careful out there

We want very badly to believe that the great bull market that has been extant for as long as it has been… now having finished eight powerful years to the upside here in the US… continues in unabated fashion for the simple truth of the matter is that everyone, everywhere lives better in bull markets. The food tastes better; the music is clearer with sweeter melodies; the women are lovelier and the men are actually handsome. Cinderella lives in bull markets. In bear markets, suddenly the make-up runs; the dresses turn shabby; the bands play off-key and without rhythm and the men and women turn one upon the other. Life turns harshly for the worse.

Thus we want truly to believe that the bull market continues but we are beginning to have real doubts. Certainly a correction of some very real magnitude is upon us.

We know only this: that when things go awry it is best to cut positions as swiftly as one might. As Jesse Livermore was told by a more senior mentor about a position that he, Livermore… had had in place that was causing him to lose sleep, cut back to a “sleeping” position. We have done that, and even now we find it difficult to doze off for the pain of losing 3% in one week is very real and all too evident.

All of that said, we are at a position in the equity, bond and commodity markets where the margin clerks are in control and where rationality takes a seat on the sidelines for a while. The rumors of one or two or several “funds” being forced to liquidate almost certainly will prove not to be rumors but shall prove to be fact either today or over the weekend. More such rumors will develop; some too shall prove to be the truth. The game is changing and so as Sgt. Esterhaus used to say to his men before he sent them out into the mean streets of Chicago on that great television show of years past, “Be careful out there.” So do be careful out there!


via zerohedge

Monday, May 1, 2017

Investing in other currency terms VS the US Dollar


People need to understand, if you buy Soy Beans, you buy Beans, you've sold Dollars. You made the bet that the Dollar is going to weaken and you would rather own beans versus the Dollar. If you buy Crude Oil, you have effectively made a bet against the US Dollar. If you bought Gold you really made a bet against the US Dollar. I rather own Gold in currencies that I think are going to fall in value. There will be a time when I will have no interest in Gold in Euro's and Yen terms. For now I think the Yen and Euro will continue to weaken.