Thursday, May 30, 2013

Nigeria, Angola OPEC angry with Saudi Arabia

This is unique circumstances. Who is the largest provider of United States oil outside the country. The answer has always been Canada. Everyone has always said Saudi Arabia, and I would have to say Saudi Arabia has been 4th, 5th or sometimes 6th. It was always Nigeria, Venezuela, Angola, Mexico that has been filling in.

Now you have Nigeria, Angola angry. Nigeria depends absolutely on exports of crude oil to United States. Now the Saudi's have quietly usurped that position. Now once again we are beholden to middle eastern crude in unusual fashion.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Dennis Gartman: Short OPEC

Stock markets are telling us economic activity around the world is strong. Demand has been very very high.
You gonna continue to see continued oil production in the various shale oil. You wanna own the rail roads that deliver crude oil, refiners that have exposure to the United States, Continental oil.

If there was a way to short OPEC, I would do sell OPEC short. The loser in this is going to be OPEC.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Dennis Gartman: Reversal day important for stock market

Yesterday was a tectonic plate shift between the feet of the market...reversal day in the stock market, reversal day in the bond market, very strange movement in the foreign exchange markets. I think yesterday was an extremely important trading session and many many things shifted and changed.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Bond Market end of the bull market

I actually took a position being short of the bond market for the first time in a long time. And I'm doing it in an unusual manner. I'm selling the very long end. I'm selling the long bond. I'm buying the 10-year.

I'm short the very long end. I'm long something in the middle. I think you've set it up for the end of the bull market in bonds. I think you've started the beginning of the bear market."

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Dennis Gartman admits mistake on Stocks & Gold

Trading, as they say, ain’t easy and like growing old. It ain’t for sissies. The trick... the “Secret”... the thing that separates those of us who’ve survived for decades in the business from those who light up the sky in a brief blaze and then blaze out like Icarus flying to close to the sun... is that those who survive do so because we know our limits; know our boundaries; we know when we are wrong and we admit it often and quickly. The “secret” is that there is no secret.

Last week we tried to sell both the US equity market and gold and both proved almost comically wrong, with the decision by Mr. Draghi on Thursday turning our trades blithely and consequentially wrong within a day. But the losses were “livable,” and were kept to 1-2%. Those are manageable losses; those can be survived, and we did indeed survive, with only our reputation sullied a bit in the process. Such are the vagaries of trading, and such shall be the vagaries of trading in the days, weeks, months, years and hopefully decades ahead.

Some have asked if we were embarrassed by the one unit short positions in gold and equities and do we wish we’d not done them? We shall answer in a most direct manner: “Nothing we did was embarrassing; they were simply wrong.” Our trades were well designed; the risks were well defined; the technical circumstances were well documented and historically valid... the trades simply went awry. We would not hesitate to do the same trades in the same manner under the same circumstances anytime again in the future; we would not hesitate for even a minute and we wish to be quite clear about that fact.

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Thursday, May 2, 2013

Dennis Gartman: You do not want to own the miners

I hate them [Gold Miners]. Theres no reason to own a miner at this point. In the last few years if you owned gold ETF or futures you haven't been hurt badly. But if you held any miner junior or senior you've been hurt badly on a consistent basis.

The bet is to own Gold, why would you expose yourself to miners union problems, mother nature problems, hedging problems. Sometime in the future the miners will outperform the gold. If you miss it by 6 months to a year you will still be early. So you dont want to own the miners and you really do not want to own the Juniors.