Monday, September 30, 2013

Gartman: Agnostic On Gold, Except In Yen Terms

Gold in yen terms at least has gone sideways,” over the past few years, he told industry experts at the IndexUniverse Inside Commodities Conference in New York City. Gold in dollar terms has been definitively a detrimental and ugly long investment.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have helped drive market volatility. 

I am overtly, manifestly, insistently, bearish on the Japanese yen. The Japanese have no choice but to devalue their currency, and commodity prices in their terms are going to go dramatically higher.

The United States will also become a net exporter of energy within five or 10 years, thanks to a hydraulic fracking and natural gas boom here.

The U.S. is already a net exporter of gasoline, though exports of crude oil are banned by law here.

It’s only a matter of time until the United States is a net supplier of energy to the rest of the world. Given the growth in the fracking industry, we’re very soon going to be energy independent.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Dennis Gartman: Nobody Stops This Rally

There are three things you can count on. You can count on the fact that the sun is going to rise. You can count on your Mom loving you. And you can count on the fact that debt ceiling talk has been discounted by the market. The economy is clearly getting better, not just here but around the world.

Ask the people working two jobs to make ends meet on how the economy is improving. They might have something different to say.

The economy is improving, albeit very slowly. Wall Street and main street have seen the gulf between them widen even more in recent years. If the economy was improving so much, why is the Fed still pumping $85 billion into the market every month. That’s why stocks sell off anytime there’s good economic news, investors love that free money. They don’t want the economy to improve too much, or the Fed might start taking some of the money away.

The trend is up, so why would you fight it until that changes? Even the government can’t ruin this rally.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Gartman: Gold Is The "Dumbest Commodity"

Anyone who tells you gold is a commodity and a "safe haven" is a "charlatan at best" and "a liar at worst," newsletter publisher Dennis Gartman told advisors and other professional investors this morning at the annual Inside Commodities conference in New York City. There is also a reasonable chance they are "a cheat,"

Gold is the "dumbest commodity" in history primarily because it is a currency, not a commodity, Gartman said. Commodities like coffee, copper, crude oil and sugar have practical uses; gold is used only in jewelry, which is hardly a necessity.

I'm not a gold bug. I don't like gold bugs.

Safe havens don't rise and fall in price by 2% or 3%. Silver frequently surges or swoons 5% "at will. If you want a safe haven, buy two-year Treasury notes.

On Oil:
There is plenty of $110 a barrel oil out there," he said. In the next five or ten years, we may find out "how much $50 or $60 a barrel oil is out there.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Gartman: Little taper, Yellen and George debates

Going forward, we just have to keep an eye—as the Fed has told us—on unemployment and until that number gets below 6.5 percent, we can expect the Fed to do very little. We're going to have to be deep-diving into the monthly data even more than we have in the past, and we're going to find out that we need. Maybe 200,000 or 225,000 or maybe even 250,000 in monthly nonfarm payroll numbers before the Fed's going to be comfortable with reducing the amount of accommodation.

I said the Fed would do very, very little at all other than changing its rhetoric and [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke has made certain that we understand how data determinant the Fed would be going forward.

Those will be the voices that we pay all our attention to after the turn of the year. Miss George is clearly the hawk on the committee while Yellen will be the dove on the committee, and we do have to defer to Miss Yellen; she will be the chairman. It'll be interesting to see the debates around those two.


Thursday, September 19, 2013

GARTMAN: Yellen Is The Front-Runner For Fed Chair

Concerning the possible replacement candidates, as noted above Dr. Yellen, the current Vice Chairman, has to be the front runner, although certainly she may be seen by some as “Damaged goods” given that she was already relegated to second-tier stature by the fact that the President had apparently chosen to pass her by as his nominee.

Nonetheless, Dr. Yellen clearly has the expertise and is well enough liked within the structure of the Fed to fill this role very well indeed. Despite the “Damaged goods” problem, she has to be considered the front runner if for no other reason than she had to go through a Senate confirmation hearing when she was posted to the Fed as its Vice Chairman in October of ’10.

Helping Dr. Yellen’s cause is the simple fact that she did a much, much better job of forecasting the problems that were to beset the US’... and the global... economy in ’07- 09 than did many other ranking officials on the Fed. Simply put, she got it right where most others missed the collapse entirely. And finally, of course, she is a woman and although the country is past this sort of consideration it is a real consideration nonetheless. Were we betting folks here at TGL, we'd have to consider Dr. Yellen as the prohibitive favorite.

Simply put, Mr. Summers is a rather unlikeable fellow, but who almost certainly is the 'smartest guy in the room' in whichever room he enters, but he has proven, shall we say, 'difficult' at very best.

Middle East stablized for now

I don’t think the situation in the middle east will get much worse than it has in the last few weeks. 

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Gartman: Japan will actually regret Olympics

Tokyo's winning bid to host the 2020 Olympics will likely boost Japan's gross domestic product, but hosting the games may actually prove to be a financial burden in the long run, investor Dennis Gartman said Monday.

"There's no question it will be good for GDP … they're going to have to build new venues. They're going to have to upgrade their roads. They're going to have to build new bridges," Gartman said on CNBC. "We also know that with the exception of every other city other than Calgary, anybody who's held an Olympics in the last 40 years has regretted the fact that they've done it … I bet that this is going to be detrimental to Japan in the long run and I bet by the time we get there, they're going to wish they didn't have the Olympics."

Following Tokyo's Olympics win, the yen fell on Monday, losing ground after Japanese stocks rallied and the Nikkei jumped 2.5 percent

Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, told "Fast Money" he remains long the Nikkei and short the yen.

"I want to be bullish of stocks generally. The Nikkei has done well for me recently," Gartman said, adding he plans to buy more of the Nikkei, too, because he think the yen is likely to continue to fall.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Reasons for golds recent sell off

I think you are having margin liquidation. I cant imagine it going down more than another $20. I may want to buy gold if it goes down another $20.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Dennis Gartman likes stocks more than gold

I don’t like gold better than stocks. Certainly Im wrong with Gold. Peace has broken out [in Syria] and a lessening of discord is always bearish of gold market. The economy is doing better. That lessens the accommodation the federal reserve is going to push into the market. On top of that rising stock prices are affecting it.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Interest Rates in US affects interest rates emerging markets

When interest rates in the U.S. go up, interest rates in emerging countries go higher. [But] they have to go even faster than they are to accommodate the weakening currency.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Rupee ugly spiral downward

It has become a rather untoward and ugly spiral downward. The money is simply pouring out [of emerging countries including India] from hedge funds liquidating their stock positions.

When they do so, in the case of India, these foreign investors get rupees that they have to sell to get U.S. dollars back.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Gartman would rather buy the Indian Rupee

If you made me take a position in the rupee today, I'd probably buy it rather than sell it amongst this panic.

The rupee has fallen to record lows in recent weeks as policymakers scramble to put measures in place to prop the legal tender and stem the currency outflows.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Gartman feels bad for RBI

I feel bad for the new Reserve Bank of India governor [Raghuram Rajan] who's been thrown right into a very hot fire in a very short span of time. What he has to hope for more than anything is that these things run their course. I'm not sure there's a great deal that he can do.