Monday, September 23, 2013

Gartman: Little taper, Yellen and George debates

Going forward, we just have to keep an eye—as the Fed has told us—on unemployment and until that number gets below 6.5 percent, we can expect the Fed to do very little. We're going to have to be deep-diving into the monthly data even more than we have in the past, and we're going to find out that we need. Maybe 200,000 or 225,000 or maybe even 250,000 in monthly nonfarm payroll numbers before the Fed's going to be comfortable with reducing the amount of accommodation.

I said the Fed would do very, very little at all other than changing its rhetoric and [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke has made certain that we understand how data determinant the Fed would be going forward.

Those will be the voices that we pay all our attention to after the turn of the year. Miss George is clearly the hawk on the committee while Yellen will be the dove on the committee, and we do have to defer to Miss Yellen; she will be the chairman. It'll be interesting to see the debates around those two.