Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Stock market rally will not end anytime soon

We see nothing that can or should de-rail the protracted global bull market. It will end when it ends and it will end when trends lines are broken; it will end when a previous rally high fails to be taken out and a previous interim low is, instead, taken out to the downside.
Dennis Gartman

It will end when the last of the large number of very publicly bearish market watchers finally gives in, upends his/her bearish intuitions and turns, finally, bullish. 

It will end with the funds on the sidelines with large sums of cash on hand rather than investments made put all of those cash hoards to work, chasing performance. 

It will end in euphoria as all great bull markets end and at the moment there is nothing even modestly resembling euphoria in the markets. Rather there is disbelief in the integrity of the bull trend, with that disbelief fired by well- argued theory or theories that are intellectually brilliant, that make imminent good sense, that are readily embraced but which have been proven horribly wrong. 

When those theories are finally abandoned, the bull market shall end... and not a moment before.

We remain “pleasantly” long of the equities market, the middle path of our three possible paths that one can adopt in a bull market: Aggressively bullish; pleasantly bullish or neutral.

via Business Insider www.businessinsider.com/gartman-were-having-a-market-melt-up-2014-8

Monday, August 25, 2014

Stock market melt up and markets going higher

I think you're having a melt-up and not a meltdown and I think stock prices still want to go higher. The trend is up and all the smart guys I know keep trying to fade this thing, I've even tried to fade it at times and every time you do its been wrong. 

I think you are now in that period time when you are going to see interest rates beginning to rise and stock prices go higher.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

When to expect a US Recession...

"If you want to determine when a recession will be coming in the U.S., watch the ratio of initial unemployment claims to the total civilian labour force. When this ratio turns higher, a recession is not far behind. It is Not turning up now, so don’t worry."

via http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/08/18/Back-to-the-real-world-soon.aspx

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Gartman is bullish on Coal, cites Aluminium call from past

Aluminum shares have been one of the leaders on the S&P for the past 10 months. I feel the same way about coal.

Coal is still going to supply 41 percent of the United States electricity generation and 43 percent of the world's electricity production. If you look at that sort of thing and think that you're going to expect or going to get continued global economic growth  and I think that you are—then one of the cheapest entities out there has to be coal.

It is a long-term leap on continued economic growth. Buy four or five of them. Two of them probably will go out of business. Two of them will probably double or triple, and one of them may be a 10-bagger after all the smoke clears. That's probably what will end up happening.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Buy Brent sell WTI..

You have Libya who has been a very large supplier of crude oil to the world—at one point I think over 1.5 million barrels per day—now down at times to less than 200,000, and actually at times producing nothing, and that's a problem.

I think you're going to start seeing Brent, eventually, in the next five to six months, trading at what is more normal, parity to the WTI contract. So even though you have problems in Libya, I think one buys Brent and one sells WTI.

VIA CNBC Fast Money

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Gold shall go higher in Euro terms

Regarding gold, of course it is strong: War is in the air and when war is in the air gold goes bid. What else can gold do? Capital is fleeing to the safe corners of the world, and when that happens it flees to gold. So we begin our discussion this morning noting this simple fact.

We note secondly that this shall be an important day for gold and for gold's future, for whoever or whatever has been the seller of gold on Fridays in recent days, weeks, and months cannot allow gold to trade upward through $1,325 and certainly it cannot allow gold to trade upward through $1,350 for that would send an inflationary fright through all other markets in all other places.

Hence -- and let's call this group The Force -- The Force will have to work very hard today to defend its authority. The question shall be: Will it?

The Force has already lost one very important battle: it has lost the battle at E975/oz., with gold trading now at or near E982 and with the truly psychologically and technically important E1,000/oz. level only just a bit ahead.

Once E1,000 is taken out -- and we think that it shall be, if not today, then next week if the geopolitical events unwind as badly as we fear they might -- then there is nothing that stems the advance until E1,100, noting that the peak for gold in euro terms was E1,350 back in late 2012.


Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Market psychology dictates short term prices

Nothing fundamentally has changed [recently]. The psychologically has changed. That's all. People have to understand that markets get driven by fundamentals in the broad term and they get driven by psychological's in the short term. The psychology simply changes and that's all that's happened here.

Has the Economy suddenly changed overnight to manifest in a sharp decline in stock prices.. No....never happens that way. Its just the psychology that changes, you have margin accounts that were terribly high, probably the highest level, aggressively extended as they have been in many many years and that sort of things happen. Risk happens fast, economic activities change much much slower.

Monday, August 4, 2014

We are going to 1860 on markets

S&P500 - 1 Year Chart
We're going to see the S&P make its way down close to 1860 or 1875 or so. That will simply take us back to major trend lines. I see nothing wrong with what's happened. The bull market hasn't ended.... Capital that had gone into stocks maybe going into plant equipment and inventory. 

Friday, August 1, 2014

Gartman: Why bean and corn prices are falling

The weather continues to be only just the slightest bit less than absolutely perfect all across the Midwest as the corn pollinates and as the beans set pods. We are witnessing truly record and truly gargantuan crops.