Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Japan should not follow austerity measures

The very, very last thing that Japan needs at this time is fiscal austerity, Japan does not need to follow the lead set by the US government back in the 30's when in the midst of what was then only a very severe recession it moved to tighten monetary policy and raise taxes in order to balance the budget.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Japan GDP numbers miss could be intentional if you believe in conspiracy theories

Dennis Gartman appears on CNBC and explains to Melissa Lee on the Japan trade

The miss[Japan GDP numbers] was so egregiously large, I mean you don't miss by almost 4 percent on one side to another. It would be one thing to expect GDP to be half a percent and it was down half a percent. Instead you were looking for up 2 percent and you were down 1.6 percent. That is an amazing miss. I have a feeling that's been massaged to make certain that we had a bad number so that the Bank of Japan would have absolute cover for continuation of devaluation of the yen, and at the same time that Abe will be given the right to do away with the ludicrous nature of a tax increase. 

The consumption tax shouldn't have been put into effect last year, it clearly should not be put into effect next year. And I think the GDP number if you want to align yourself with conspiratorialist was simply a massaged number to make sure that Abe has clear reign not to go ahead with that tax increase.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Dennis Gartman covers short oil position

Dennis Gartman speaks on CNBC
The market was collapsing. On a day when the markets are collapsing, the front months should be falling far more dramatically than the back months. Instead actually the front months fell slightly less. Thats a very unusually circumstance.

I watched the Term Structure and how it moves and the Term Structure was not bearish on a decidedly bearish day. It told me cover in, go to the sidelines, I've been very lucky. It was time to stand aside. I think the time to be short [oil] has passed us by


Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Public beating the pros in stock markets at the moment

It still seems to be a bull market. Every time I try to go to the sidelines it proves to be absolutely wrong thing to do. I'm not alone in that. It seems like all of the pros are the ones Not doing well in the market. 

It seems like the public that sits tight and just allows monetary policy and stronger economic environs to carry share prices higher do quite well.

Dennis Gartman on CNBC Interview

Monday, November 10, 2014

Canada unemployment numbers were great.. North America labor market looking good


Concerning the unemployment numbers, I think we need to pay attention to what happened in Canada because the numbers that came out of Canada was shockingly good. The world was expecting the numbers to show minus numbers maybe 5000 to 7000 jobs lost. Instead the numbers were up instead 43,000. Across North America the job market is really quite good and surprisingly good. 

Monday, November 3, 2014

Europe stock weakness due to Germany

The Germans have been terribly reticent and absolutely wrong in their reticence about not expanding reserves from the ECB.... and they have done I think untold amounts of damage to the economy and that is why it has lagged. 

Also there is terribly difficult reforms that have to be accomplished. But if all of those things do happen and you get Quantitative Easing, then I think European stocks will do reasonably well...Probably still will be better to be invested in the United States. 

But if you must be invested in Europe under Quantitative Easing go ahead and do it. At the same time make sure you are short of the Euro, I think that's the real trade to be long of the stock market and short of the euro because if they do Quantitative Easing that will be detrimental to the Euro and that will actually be very good for the European economy.

VIA CNBC interview