Thursday, January 29, 2015

Lower oil prices will benefit farmers

In my lifetime, we will never see $75 crude oil ever again. Not ever, not no-how. Take a look at the futures markets in oil. The back months are now $15 above the spot month. It's called a contango. That's profitable for frackers. Not only that, we're seeing people taking delivery of crude oil because you can make money buying it, selling forward futures and redelivering it when you have a contango. Crude oil is bidding for storage

You hear people say $45 crude will stop fracking. But, two years out, futures are at 60 dollars. Any bank will lend money hedged at $60 a barrel. I think we might have a chance to think $1.85 gasoline looks expensive. 

It means cheap fertilizer. It makes for very cheap nitrogen supplies. That's going to be wonderful for you guys in the business of growing crops. It will help overcome the fact that grain prices, I don't think, are going anywhere.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Ethanol and Corn Prices to go down

This year, we're probably going to plant 88 million acres corn and 88 million acres of soybeans. Because of the corn-bean ratio, more farmers are going to put soybeans in the ground given these prices right now. Ethanol is going to go south. 

Ethanol is probably gone, and if that happens, you could see corn prices a lot lower. A whole lot lower. Way lower. I trust I'm clear. They could take a buck and a half to $2 out of corn without any problem.

In the past several years, if you take a look at corn prices to soybean prices to land prices, land is extraordinarily expensive. If you want to make the implied bet, cash your lot against the rising dollar, inflationary forces, and if you want to buy $8,000/acre land in Iowa, I think you'll fail. I think it'll get very ugly.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Dennis Gartman praises Stocks in Iowa Land Expo in Iowa 2015

I think we're in an environment here where the wind is at our back, but it's a mild wind, a pleasant wind; it's not going to take us forward rushing to higher levels, but compared to the rest of the world, we're so much better off in the U.S. 

We have to get used to the fact the dollar's going higher and oil's low. Buy stocks, don't buy land.

My first rule of trading: Do more of the things that have been working and do less of the things that have not. What has been working? Stocks. They've been going upward on a consistent basis, The investment I'd probably stay away from: "Land".

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Oil prices decline is good news for economy

It [oil prices weakness] is hugely beneficial to the economy. I dont see this as an example of declining demand around the world. I see this as an increasing supply in the world, nothing more than that. The weakness in crude oil prices is demonstrably bullish for the economy in the long run. It is demonstrably bullish for the Chinese economy in the long run. 

Monday, January 19, 2015

Swiss move causes disrespect for Central Banks

That just causes great more dis-concertion, great more disrespect for central banks, generally.

We're now more convinced that the euro will continue to weaken. The clarity here is that there's no certainty on where rates are going, where currencies are going and where commodity prices are going, and lots of uncertainty therefore on earnings.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Dennis Gartman to speak at Iowa's 2015 Land Investment Expo

Dennis Gartman to speak on Jan 23, 2015 at the 2015 Land Investment Expo, an annual real estate conference in West Des Moines, Iowa. Gartman is to speak along with other speakers such as Donald Trump. 

The Land Investment Expo is the Midwest’s premier agricultural real estate conference with in-depth programming that each year attracts more than 600 attendees to West Des Moines, Iowa.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Crude oil worst probably over, buying tanker stocks

There's an abundance of Crude out there. Its always bidding for storage. We now have people buying tankers to put crude oil, store oil. That may help in the long run. Most of the bearish move is probably behind us. At-least WTI has begun to gain relative to Brent and that's is the first sign that the downward move is behind us.

I think what we see right now is going to get even further out. I think we are going to continue to unwind the contango. More people are going to do more buying of Tankers.  This is the first time I've ventured in. I want to buy Tanker stocks for the first time in a while. Its not a bet on Crude itself, its a bet simply on the carrying charge.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

China is getting Crude Oil from non traditional sources

What I thought was interesting, I wrote about, the data coming out how quickly China has moved from being supplied by Saudi Arabia to being supplied by Angola, to being supplied by other suppliers. And clearly the Saudis are very upset by this fact and are going to make certain that any market share they have lost, they are going to regain and they have the ability to do that. 

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Gartman expects more Dollar strength vs Euro... Dollar bull market long way to go

Simply put, there are ample fundamental reasons for the Dollar’s strength and for the Euro’s weakness.

Further, we see nothing on the horizon that shall work against those trends, for the European economy is demonstrably weaker than is that of the US economy; the political situation here is calmer than is that of Europe and the monetary authorities in the States are not likely to move to become easier.

I think the bull market in the dollar has really only just begun. Of course there'll be corrections along the way.

Monday, January 5, 2015

ECB will have to do QE eventually

Eventually the ECB will have no choice, Draghi will have no choice, the Germans will have no choice... but to move into some sort of Quantitative Easing. They have to do that. And you got negative rates in Switzerland, you can get close to negative rates in Germany before this is over. 


Thursday, January 1, 2015

Gold in Euro terms doing well

Those owning gold in terms of the US dollar find themselves bored, and if they are not they should be. With gold trading $1,195, it’s down 0.5 percent for the year-to-date and that, in our opinion, defines boredom. 

However, those long of gold in euro denominated terms know that with gold trading $977 per ounce, they are up 11.6 percent for the year.