Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Gold prices vs China Stock market

Margin calls in the Chinese stock market could be an overlooked catalyst for the sell-off in gold, which hit a new five-year low......

Would that we had remembered our own admonition for that is precisely what has taken place; gold and stocks have been pitched over in China. Hence we shall watch for signs that the Chinese stock market has turned for the better as a sign that the pressure on gold will end.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Markets could be near a Top not a bottom

It is very difficult to put together a bullish case for stock prices.
I think the best thing to do is to quietly go to the sidelines and allow the circumstances in Europe and ... China wend their way through and clarify themselves. We're probably not closer to a bottom. I think we're closer to the top.

Two.... three weeks ago I was quite bullish on stocks. [But] now I see a lot of reasons to be at best neutral on stocks here in the United States and even slightly bearish of them.

The overriding fundamental is China. I tell you to pay a great good deal of attention to what's going on in China. The government [there] is doing everything it can to try to pop up stock prices, and thus far has been utterly unsuccessful. Usually government intervention ends badly, and this does not look pretty.

Friday, July 24, 2015

Could Commodity prices predict a market collapse

I would hesitate to make the leap saying that commodities are telling us that the world is going into the dinger and equities are going to sell off. I think they are two completely different classes.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Commodities could be in bear market [VIDEO]

Its hard to like any commodities. The dollar is so strong. 

Wheat prices are under extreme pressure. 

Gold is under extreme pressure. But it's not just gold that's collapsed—copper and oil have followed suit, with crude renewing its slide back below $50 a barrel as a strong dollar casts "a pall against all commodities. Everything is under pressure due to a strong dollar.

Right now they're acting in concert, one to another, the dollar being the large implication.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Iran to sell crude oil more aggresively

Now that the Iranians are going to be selling crude into the world market on a more aggressive manner it angers the Saudis… who are going to do everything within their power to make certain that they retain their market share. That's going to tend to put downward pressure upon crude oil price.

Back in the 1970's and early 1980's, Iran was producing about 6 million barrels of crude oil per day. Now, they're back to about 4.5 million. They will get 6 million barrels over the course of the next two years.

Tanker Stocks and Crude Oil

The tankers seem to be something that nobody is paying a great deal of attention to. I think that owning tankers makes sense.


Monday, July 20, 2015

Dont short the markets [VIDEO]

What I find interesting and relatively amusing is that every smart guy and every smart woman I know…keeps trying to sell it short, and they put forth wonderful ideas about why stocks are overvalued. But the stock market keeps moving higher.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

China market sell restrictions exposed

Denying shareholders the ability to sell their holdings when they wish to do so is the most heinous of collectivist actions, and although it has saved the market…for the moment…from falling, it has exposed itself for what it is: a dictatorship and nothing more. Beware!

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Germany wants to keep Greece in Euro zone

We still maintain that Germany's leaders want Greece to remain in both the political and the monetary unions for as an exporting nation Germany needs the euro to be, on balance, weak. A euro with Greece in it shall be… all things being otherwise equal… weaker, while a ‘Greece-less' euro would be demonstrably stronger.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Greece and kicking the can down the road

At this point, we’ve no idea what shall be mandated to be put forth before the deadline has come to the fore, and we are certain that neither do the Greek attendees to the talks nor do most of the Euro-zone leaders. 

Further, we are certain that when the 15th has come around, a new deadline will be granted; the can shall be kicked once again and confusion shall continue to reign. We wash our hands of the whole enterprise. 

Stay tuned; things can change… swiftly and perhaps even violently… even as an “agreement” has been reached and press conferences have already been held. More shall be.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Cotton prices may go higher

Usually we get rallies in June and July on drought conditions, but this year we're getting rallies in the grain markets on excess of rain conditions. The grain markets have taken off, interestingly enough, because there is too much water and we haven't been able to get the crops in the ground. Further, the crops that have gotten planted will likely be sending their roots less deep into the soil, putting them at risk of drier conditions in July and August.

The crop that is most interesting to me is the cotton crop. No one is paying attention to it. Cotton is down $2 a pound several years ago to 65 cents a pound. That's a precipitous decline.

I think we'll be surprised how much cotton acreage has been cut in California and on the high plains of Texas. If you're going to make me do something, I'd rather buy cotton than anything else.


Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Concerns about the bull market around the world

We are very seriously concerned about the veracity of the global bull market. Stocks are in real trouble here, and there's more trouble ahead.