Monday, July 6, 2015

Cotton prices may go higher

Usually we get rallies in June and July on drought conditions, but this year we're getting rallies in the grain markets on excess of rain conditions. The grain markets have taken off, interestingly enough, because there is too much water and we haven't been able to get the crops in the ground. Further, the crops that have gotten planted will likely be sending their roots less deep into the soil, putting them at risk of drier conditions in July and August.

The crop that is most interesting to me is the cotton crop. No one is paying attention to it. Cotton is down $2 a pound several years ago to 65 cents a pound. That's a precipitous decline.

I think we'll be surprised how much cotton acreage has been cut in California and on the high plains of Texas. If you're going to make me do something, I'd rather buy cotton than anything else.