Thursday, August 27, 2015

Stopped out of Oil long position

I turned bullish on Friday [on Crude oil]. I had no idea we were going to be walking into a 1000 point decline on the DOW.

I was wrong for one day. 
Am I still wrong? I'm on the sidelines. 
Do I think I'm going to be bullish on crude oil from this point forward? question..

Now comes the difficult point when a trader gets out of a trade and has to come back and buy it at a higher price than where he got stopped out at. That's the hardest thing in this business. We'll see if I have the courage and my convictions to do that.

Options vs Futures

In retrospect we should have been slower in turning from an overtly bearish posture on crude oil to one that was bullish, and even more properly we probably should have put our bullish posture into effect using options rather than a direct futures position. We shall consider that in the future. Certainly it would have been less “harmful.”

Having been bearish of crude oil for a very long while, it is time no longer to be bearish, but perhaps we were indeed a bit too early in turning bullish. Better, in hindsight, it would have been to have been on the sidelines following Friday’s weakness in the capital markets,  knowing that Monday would be a disaster. Lessons are always being learned.

Unfair criticism

But others took us to task a great deal more disconcertingly, calling upon us to close our business; to take up another vocation; to stop making “calls” and as one “pundit” rather comically suggested we should go have s-e-x-u-a-l relations with our self. 

But we know of no other perspective to take but to admit our mistakes when they happen, even if they are created by outside, short term agencies over which we have no control and which develop out of the thinnest of short term air. We have no choice but to live to fight another day and the chaos of yesterday forced that down hard upon us.