Thursday, September 17, 2015

No idea if the Fed will raise or hold rates

So then, what do we think the Fed shall do? We’ve not the faintest idea and we openly admit that fact. What the Fed will do and what the Fed should do are two wholly separate issues, for we believe strongly that the Fed should have begun to process of “normalizing” rates two years ago and has erred in not having done so, but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months “just to be sure.”

The question is, were we voters on the FOMC what would we do? And the answer is, we’d probably vote to hold rates steady but we’d use the clearest and more certain language available to us to assure everyone that rates almost certainly will move higher before the year’s end. Further, we’d make certain that everyone in the markets knows that we needn’t call a press conference to make a change in the o/n funding rate and that it can… and almost certainly will… come as a surprise when the data has forced us to act.