Friday, September 4, 2015

This is a real BEAR MARKET

Stock Market

I do think we are in a real bear market. The rallies that we have seen have been in the equities volume on declining volume, the breaks have been on advancing volume. 

I'm afraid that this is a very real bear market and I'm afraid that most people are not prepared at all for it. There's been very little public selling thats going on. I think this is very dismaying.

Rallies are to be sold. End of discussion.

Current Positioning in stock market

I trade only for my own account. I'm long some tanker stocks because that is some sort of a bet on declining prices of crude oil, but at the same time I am short derivatives to get myself on balance slightly net-short of the stock market.

Crude Oil 

Two weeks ago I was very bullish [on crude]—I'm not anymore. If crude oil continues to fall, that will argue that demand is declining, that will argue badly for the economy in general and I think that's one of the coextensive indicators of a bear market in the equities market