Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Still a bear market in energy including Natural Gas

They [Natural Gas] are still going lower, it is 1 to 1 with crude oil prices and given that crude oil is still moving from the upper left to lower right. We have continued to see fracking going on even though we have seen drill rigs go off the edge of the cliff. We're still producing, and as long as we're still producing you're going to get RBOB gasoline going down, crude oil continues to go down, Nat Gas continues to go down, it's still a bear market in energy and it's going to continue to go down until it stops.

Nat gas has a problem because right now with El Nino out there it looks like this year we're going to have a slightly warmer, probably even a very warm winter on the east coast and that's going to put demand down as far as nat gas is concerned. The trend is clearly downward, the weather continues to be extraordinarily good – we're probably going to be one, two or three degrees warmer than last year. And if that happens, as long as there's no shutdown continually in production you might put a 1-handle up on nat gas.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Mario Draghi helping support Gold price

Draghi & Company are, in colloquial terms, ‘going-all-in’ to create an inflation in Europe. 

Whether those efforts can and will succeed is open to debate and will eventually either be proven correct or will be proven wrong; however, until that proof is forthcoming the liquidity being created will have a massively supportive effect upon gold prices.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

History warning to get out of stocks

THE RUSSEL “REVERSES” AGAIN!: And We Paid Heed: We turned bullish of stocks when this index and others “reversed” to the upside following the Employment Situation Report two weeks ago, but the trend line weighed heavily and the Index “reversed” to the downside yesterday… to our chagrin.

All the markets that comprise our International Index have fallen, a very rare occurrence indeed. In fact, when this sort of thing happens following bullish moves it has almost always signaled the end of the bull-run. Couple this unanimity of price movement with the “reversals” noted above and we have a situation that  concerns us greatly. 

Indeed it concerns us enough to exit our long positions entirely upon receipt of this commentary… positions that only a day or two ago seemed to us to be insulated from random noise, able to withstand a day or two of normal consolidation, but unable now to withstand the technical deterioration that has taken place as swiftly as it has. Certainly we do not like switching positions this quickly, for we appear to be flippant and foolhardy, but history tells us that we have no choice.


Monday, October 12, 2015

Bullish crude more than ever | Gartman

If you watch the term structure in the futures, you've seen the contango narrow. Crude is no longer aggressively bidding for storage as it was it was six or seven weeks ago. I think you've seen the lows.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Reversal day on charts signals time to be bullish on stocks

SHARE PRICES TURNED VIOLENTLY AND SHARPLY HIGHER FRIDAY here in the US, in Canada and in Europe, and they have continued to strengthen in Asian share dealing. 

Further as believers in and followers of “Reversal” days on the charts we are this morning making the bold… indeed, for us, the very bold … statement that the bearish run in global stocks is over; that the bearish run to the downside in US shares is over and that we are henceforth to err bullishly of shares, diametrically opposed to the position we have had for the past several months wherein we erred steadily… almost relentlessly… bearishly. 

We made the change from manifestly bearish of commodity prices to one that was incipiently bullish of them several weeks ago, and we made the shift from having been even more manifestly bearish of crude oil for the past many months to one incipiently bullish instead, and we are now finishing the trifecta as we turn bullish of stocks.

via http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-05/bulls-beware-days-after-calling-bear-market-gartman-declares-bearish-run-global-stoc

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Sell the rallies says Dennis Gartman

Essentially repeating what we said here ...., there are still many who deny that this is a bear market, we fear that it has a good distance to the downside yet to travel. Merely to get to “The Box” shall take the S&P to 1420? 1550! Rallies are to be sold.

........ and there will be many who will argue that this is the start of the next bull market; that the worst is now behind us and that the global nearly 20% decline from the highs is sufficiently deep to have discounted all of the ill economic news that bear markets must do. 

We are of the opinion that the worst is not yet behind us; that a mere less-than-handful of months from the highs is insufficient as far as “time” is concerned for a bear market to have run its course and that new lows still lie ahead. We shall consider each and every rally then to be interim and corrective in nature, as we consider today’s rally.

via http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30/stocks-explode-higher-gartman-doubles-down-bear-market-call