Monday, November 23, 2015

After Paris attacks consumer spending and euro in focus

Paris attacks will hurt consumer spending
If you don't believe consumers are going to shut down spending, at least at the margins, you're naive. Of course they are. Even down in Virginia, where I live, you can sense that people are very disconcerted about what happened.

Federal Reserve Tighten or Hold ?
If Euro trades under par, clearly that is a tightening for the United States. I think this puts it absolutely on Hold.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Terrorist attack on France is not a bullish sign for the market

Do we believe this rally? No, we do not. We refuse to believe that “terror” [Paris attacks last week] is bullish. We refuse to believe that the deaths of 129 innocent people by madmen are materially supportive of stock prices. We refuse to accept the notion that the odds of a Fed tightening are reduced modestly and that that is massively supportive of stock valuations. We refuse to believe that common sense has been cast overboard entirely, and so neutral we are and neutral we shall be. 

We are wise enough not to stand astride of the market and scream aloud that the market is wrong and that we are right, and so we’ll not be short, but neither shall we accept the notion that what happened in Paris on Friday is equity bullish. 

Sometimes it is just best to hove to the sidelines and watch; we’ve hoved! We’re watching.

via Zerohedge

Monday, November 16, 2015

Dennis Gartman worried for Japan

We’re [American economy is] doing fine, thank you very much. Nothing scared me as much as what was happening in 2007, 2008 and 2009. If it hadn’t been for Bernanke in 2008 and 2009, this country might have slipped off the edge into a depression, and we have avoided that.”

We’re doing fine, Canada’s doing fine, Australia’s doing fine, New Zealand’s doing fine. Europe is not going to get out of its own way for a long period of time. Japan is doomed [due to expected lower population in the longer term]. Worse for Japan, it is the most racist society the world has ever seen. If Russia has a problem, it’s that it cannot keep its men away from the bottle of vodka.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Dollar vs Gold which one Gartman likes better

I think the Dollar is very very strong. We're only in the fourth inning of a nine-inning ball game as far as the dollar is concerned. 

A strong dollar is going to give a reason for gold to go down. The dollar will seriously outperform gold for the foreseeable future for the simple reason that our Fed officials are erring on the side of slightly tighter monetary policies. If I had to choose between the Dollar and the Gold market, I'll choose the dollar. 

Monday, November 9, 2015

Bull market in stocks again

Still in a bull market.

You can write this down, it's a bull market until it stops.They'll continue to go higher until they stop, until the trend lines are broken, and they haven't been.Those who continue to try to sell it short find themselves scrambling almost all the time.

Gold doing well in Euro and Yen terms

Gold, however, funded in euros or gold funded in yen has been a wonderful winning position

Fed's next move

Really after all the smoke clears, what does it matter? We'll get a 25 basis point increase sometime and they'll (the Fed) probably stop for a long time after that before they raise them again.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Gold price manipulation possibilities

We find it hard to believe that the mere suggestion by the Federal Open Market Committee in its post-meeting communique on Friday that “liftoff” on the overnight Fed funds rate may take place at its December meeting can be responsible for this sort of egregious, serious, and now relentless selling, and we are almost of the mindset associated with the likes of the gold bugs and GATA that some malevolent “force” was behind the selling.

However, we are not going to travel down that road at the moment and sit tight with our positions, believing that the continued “experiments” with QE undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank shall work to the detriment of their currencies and to the support of gold. 

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Dennis Gartman on China stock markets and US Dollar

The “world” is suddenly bearish of the Chinese economy and perhaps we would do well to join that throng, but we are of the mind-set that the “world” has China wrongly accused of continual economic weakness and have the perception that nothing can be done about that, whereas we are convinced that the monetary authorities have much left in their “stimulus quiver” that can be used, including enormous room on the reserve requirement front for material cuts and for their own experiment with QE that has not as yet been attempted.

Given the seriousness of the decision, finally, announced last week to end the One Child Policy that has been in effect for four decades and which had been Communist Party dogma… an indication that the officials in Beijing are prepared to take very material action even to the point of admitting past mistakes and rectifying those mistakes… we suspect that there are more such policy decisions that shall be rendered in order to turn the economy for the better.

We note that the PMI for Germany was really quite impressive, coming in at 52.3, up from 52.0 last month. This is well above expectations; however, the EUR’s response has been tepid at best, with the EUR bulls fully expecting a number this good to have put a strong bid into the currency. It has not and that we suspect shall make life for the EUR bulls a bit uncomfortable.

Finally, it does appear to us that the major trend is still in the favor of the US dollar; that the major trends for the EUR and for the Yen are downward and that we would do well to err bearishly of the former two currencies. “Par” is a reasonable target for the EUR vs. the dollar, and once “par” has been given then even lower values shall become the prevalent thesis. Too, we see the Yen’s trend as inexorably weaker relative to the US dollar, with 125 only a near-term target. Much lower Yen values lie ahead.