Monday, February 29, 2016

Keep losses small can be key to a successful trading strategy

Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are 'right' only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Stocks and Gold can move higher together

The monetary authorities in the US, in Europe, in Japan, in China et al have no choice but to expand the supply of reserves aggressively and materially rather than continue the destabilizing and very public decision to allow short term and even medium term interest rates to move into negative number.

We fear that perhaps we are about to see a period of time when the monetary authorities throw caution to the inflationary wind, expand the supply of reserves to the banking systems around the world in a fashion that really can only be considered egregious with caution tossed to the winds. That is, we may be in for a period of time when gold and equities move in tandem together to the upside. 

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Gold pull back due to public interest in buying

Since peaking at $1250, the volumes on the COMEX [GOLD] have waned considerably and that is as it should be for volume should follow the trend and the trend is clearly upward.

It has been a sporty run to the upside. The public has suddenly gotten a little interested, and that probably is a good reason to say, I bet we settle backwards.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Why Oil could trade between $27 - $47 longer term

You hear talk about the Russians wanting to reduce supply. They can’t possibly because a good three-quarters of where they produce their oil is in very cold areas in Siberia. They don’t have those pipes insulated, they have to continue to pump crude oil through there. The Iranians and the Saudis hate each other. They have, for lack of a better term, a war going on — a gas price war. They’re not going to let go.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Fed may create confusion if it moves in opposite direction

I hope the Fed keeps its mouth shut for a while. If the Fed were to move in the opposite direction, start to move to ease monetary policy, it would raise confusion.

The Fed has gone a little overboard with its amount of transparency. Sometimes a bit of smokescreen, sometimes a bit of quiet, and sometimes a bit of opaqueness might serve us a little bit better. 

Donald Trump is wrong on various topics including taxes and international trade

We are not friendly to Mr. Trump’s candidacy here at TGL, for he is wrong… badly… on international trade; he is wrong… badly… on the trend of the Chinese Renminbi over the course of the past several years; he is wrong… badly…on imminent domain; he is wrong… badly on taxes; he is wrong… badly… on the size of government.

We have to remember that this is the year of ‘anger’ in American politics and it is for this reason that men such as Gov. Kasich and Gov. Bush, one of whom in years past would have been the Republican Party’s nominee and would have likely won the Presidency but whom this year are simply not gaining traction… yet. This we find sad; this is the reason why a demagogue like Mr. Trump can hold the support of 35% of the ‘Republican' voters’ collective support when in other years he’d be seen as and understood as the demagogue, narcissist that he is. His, as he himself has said, is the ‘Mantle' of anger.

Mr. Bloomberg is at his core interventionist when it comes to economics; he is supportive of 'Big Brother' government; a strong supporter of stronger gun control legislation… in other words, he is clearly not a Republican but is far closer to interventionist philosophies identified with the Democrats. A self-funded campaign by Mr. Bloomberg would, in our opinion, do a great deal of damage to Ms. Clinton should she become the Democrat Party’s nominee, and would do demonstrably lesser damage to the eventual Republican Party nominee.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Crude Oil could have bottomed already but wont be going very high either

I have my doubts about crude falling below $22 a barrel — if it happens in sheer panic it will be over in a sheer second. 

At this point I don't think I want to be short of crude oil. I've been very bearish for a long time. I think the time for being bearish of crude is over. I think that there's a possibility we have bottomed.

How high could Crude Oil go

We're not going to see crude above $44 again in my lifetime.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Central Banks could be trying to create inflation

We are more bullish now of gold than we were previously for the market has begun to move sharply in our favor following the comments from Mr. Draghi two weeks ago and following the Bank of Japan’s actions and comments on Friday.

Capital is beginning to fear what the monetary authorities can do and shall do over the course of the next several months and years as they try to create an inflation. 
GOLD going higher from here

The broad trend has turned clearly for the better in gold; the lows that were seen back in November of last year shall be or certainly should be inviolate.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Markets could trade to 1690 - 1800

This bear run is not over. There is more to be gotten on the downside. If we must put forth a target to the market’ downside we can suggest accepting Goldman Sachs' latest estimate for earnings by the S&P listed companies of $110-$115 this year. If we apply a still higher-than average P/E of 15 compared to the present level, that give us a target to the downside of 1690; a 16 P/E gives us a target of 1800 and in the broad scheme of things those are not illogical targets to the downside.

We shall strongly urge those who are still aggressively long of equities to become less so; we shall urge those who are upon the sidelines and are “punters” rather than long term investors to err obviously on the short side and we shall urge long term investors who’ve been fortunate enough to have gone to the sidelines to do what they can and what they must to convince themselves that things are not yet “cheap” enough to warrant even nibbling at equities. Patience and discretion shall be… as they always are… the far better parts of investment valor.