Monday, June 6, 2016

Venezuela selling Gold and will put pressure on gold prices for another couple months

People bought gold because they were concerned about equity prices. Gold was rallying very hard in January and February as the stock market was stumbling. When the stock market firmed up, the propensity to add to any long positions in gold was greatly reduced.

There's also been some rather aggressive sellers―primarily the Venezuelans―who've had no choice but to sell gold. They can't raise foreign capital or hard currency, and Venezuela needs hard currency.

Venezuela has made so many stupid decisions in the course of the past several years under Mr. Maduro. The country is the great producer of sludgy, heavy crude oil. To sell that crude oil, it has always had to mix it with better blends from abroad.

But it can't seem to buy any more because it doesn't have the money to do it. Thus, it’s been a seller of gold from its reserves, which makes Venezuela the dominant seller right now. They may have another month or two selling, at most. Once that's out of the way, gold prices probably will go higher.

Most of the monetary authorities, with the exception of the United States, are going to be easing monetary policies. The Japanese have no choice but to do so. The government deferred the sales tax increase that was supposed to go into effect next April for at least 2.5 more years. That will give the monetary authority at the Bank of Japan the ability to expand reserves even more aggressively. The Europeans have to do the same thing.

I like gold, but gold in euro terms and gold in yen terms is a far better trade than is gold in dollars.