Monday, September 12, 2016

There will be no Russia - Saudi Arabia crude oil freeze agreement

Saudi Arabia - Russia production freeze ?
They have been at religious difference for decades. That is not going to go away anytime soon. They have never really liked one another. The Russians have until recently been Atheists and that doesnt bode well with the Saudi's. The Saudi's see the long term price of Crude at effectively zero. There will be no freeze of any consequence. The contangos continue to widen, which tells you that there is an abundance of supply in the market. As long as the contangos continue to widen, as crude oil bids for storage, prices are going to head lower. Finally once you had WTI two weeks ago close at $50 with a $4 contango, every fracker, except for the total incompetents are making very profitable enterprise at these prices. 

So, the amount of crude oil that's going to come out of the Bakken, out of the Permian, out of Eagle Ford, is just going to be very large. The Saudis, the Iranians and the Russians have nothing they can say to us to tell us to stop our own production and we won't.

The reality is we're going to be stuck for several years between $35 on the low end, and $55 on the high. On balance we are likely to see $35 before we see $55.