Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Feeling uneasy about the market

Regarding the market here in the US, the trends of the broad indices remain upward, if again we define the “trend” by the 200 day moving average of the index in question or of the individual stock. The Dow, for example, is nearly 3.1% above its upward sloping 200 day moving average and that obviously remains bullishly inclined. The S&P’s 200 day moving average continues to move “from the lower left to the upper right” .... and the broad Russel Index is a stunning 9.2% above its upward sloping 200 day moving average. Clearly the trends, in broad terms, remain upward.

But… and isn’t there always a “but” of some consequence?...we are nonetheless bothered by the fact that so many of these broad indices “seem” to be turning for the worse, not the better. We are bothered by  the fact that the S&P “seems” to be failing in recent day, refusing to make new highs while breaking short term, but nonetheless seemingly important, short term upward sloping trend lines as seen in the chart of the S&P this page. The same can be said of the Dow; of the NYSE and of the Russel. This we find worrisome; this is what keeps us up at night.

Finally, we found it more than merely passing strange that on the first of the month stocks did not advance. Historically, new inflows of money have taken the indices higher on the first trading day of each new month. This time that did no happen, and that has given us reason for concern. ...... we find ourselves uneasy about the equity market… very, very uneasy