Tuesday, December 18, 2018

I use derivatives to short the market

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Monday, December 17, 2018

Still more downside for stocks globally

"I'm afraid the bull market has ended. I'm constantly amused by people, who say you don't have a bear market until you're down 20 percent. By the time you are down 20 percent, you have to get up 35 percent to get even. So a 20 percent decline is extraordinary."

"I think we got another 5 to 10 percent that we can take global stocks down, maybe a little bit more. I think we are in a bear market. I think the wise thing for people to do is raise your cash, reduce your exposure, be less involved."

via fox business radio

Monday, December 3, 2018

We could see record breaking sales this year 2018

Online Shopping is gaining in popularity due to ease and being able to buy products from the comfort of your home.

"Clearly it is surprising how over the course of a near decade, especially over the last five years, how amazingly and egregiously things have moved to the web. It is astonishing how much is being done on the net, and how much less being done in brick-and-mortar stores. I am stunned by that fact.”

"I’m in awe of what’s happening, but what’s the net effect on the economy? Probably not that much. It’s just a transfer of the money from one thing to another, so there isn’t any real impact of this. It’s simply a movement from brick-and-mortar stores to the web. It’s going to continue that way for many years.”

This year could be a Record Breaking year in terms of sales.

“It would be illogical for it not to be a record-breaking year. One, the economy is doing better. Two, the population is larger. Three, incomes are up. It would be stunning for it not to be a record-breaking year. Record sales should not shock us. The only time you aren’t going to get record sales was like in 2008, when the economy was in an egregious recession. Clearly, we are not in a recession right now, but we will eventually be in a recession. When that happens, retail sales will tumble. The economy is doing quite well. Record sales should not surprise anybody.”

2018 VS 2019 Sales

“I get a little concerned because my job as an economist is to forecast where things will be in a year from now, and I can’t imagine they will be much better,” he said. “It will probably be slightly worse from now. In fact, next Christmas I think sales will be non-record. But now, it’s tightening, but not tightening aggressively, so it would be illogical to assume sales will be anything but record now.”

via wraltechwire

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Stocks may bounce up for next 1 or 2 weeks

Dennis Gartman in his recent newsletter thinks we are still in a bear market and should trade accordingly. 

"The market is egregiously, preposterously, violently and almost unprecedentedly over-extended to the downside but… … sadly we fear that stocks generally have even further to go to the downside before they can turn for the better. We remain steadfastly bearish and once again we shall suggest strongly that strength is to be sold into; weakness is not yet to be bought."

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Monday, October 15, 2018

US recession could be triggered by the Federal Reserve

Dennis Gartman in has said on FA magazine that a US recession could be triggered by the Federal Reserve.

"The fuel that had been injected into the system is not being starved, but it’s certainly being inhibited. If they don’t continue some kind of quantitative easing methodology, that will be a precursor of a recession. Eventually, we should also see the yield curve move to an inversion, and six months after that a recession. Are we recession proof? Absolutely not.”

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Bitcoin has a volatility problem

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are not a smart bet says Dennis Gartman on the recent Financial Advisors Magazine article.

"The problem I have with Bitcoin is that if I go out and buy a car this afternoon with Bitcoin, will the car dealer, given an x number of Bitcoin, object to selling me the auto if Bitcoin falls by 5 percent?. I wish Bitcoin investors well, but it’s a punter’s paradise, it moves 5, 10, 15 percent in the course of a day, and until that stabilizes, you’ll have a hard time selling me on it."

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Democrat senators Manchin and Heitkamp could vote for Judge Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination.

Dennis Gartman on the Judge Kavanaugh and his prospects for Supreme Court nomination.

"We feel again compelled to discuss the events of last week as Judge Kavanaugh’s and Dr. Ford’s appearances made the most compelling television we’ve witnessed since the Watergate hearings nearly four decades ago. Let us be quite honest here: we were stunned by the sincerity and compelling nature of both Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford. Her story was real; her appearance compelling. Her desire initially to have remained anonymous was obvious and just as obvious was the vile nature of the Left’s use of her as an attack point against Judge Kavanaugh. Initially, and before her appearance, we thought of her as a Left-wing partisan. Clearly, she was not and is not. We are convinced that was not her intention."

Confirmation confirmed ?

"Barring some further salacious rumors regarding Judge Kavanaugh’s past this week, when this is done, Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court will pass through the Senate with more than 50 votes. When the vote counting is done, but before the vote is actually taken and when Sen. McConnell quietly reports to his fellow Senators that he has the votes to win, Senators Manchin and Heitkamp will vote for his nomination too giving the vote a clearer majority of perhaps 53-47. Judge Kavanaugh will become Justice Kavanaugh but the smell… the stench… of what the Left has done shall linger for years into the future. Again, shame upon them. We are disgusted, and we are embarrassed."

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Emerging markets are not a BUY at the moment

Developing economy stocks are not a good trade for now according to Dennis Gartman's recent comments on Financial Advisor Magazine.

"Emerging markets are markets from which you cannot emerge during an emergency. Invariably, the stuff hits the fan and when you have to get out, you can’t get out. There will come a time where, if you bought an ETF of emerging market equities, in 25 years you’ll do great. In the course of the next two years, I think you’ll do poorly."

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Potential USDA $4.7 billion payment to farmers may be an attempt to buyoff farmers

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Should the US have kicked Turkey while Turkey was down ?

 "We find it dismaying that the US had chosen to kick Turkey while the latter is down and is suffering a severe bout of economic pain. But again, this is not merely a Turkish/US problem; this is far more widely spread than Turkey."

Monday, July 30, 2018

Market has taken bad news very well

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Dennis Gartman speaks at minute mark 1:20 and 5:25

Thursday, July 12, 2018

US economy great but stocks could turn lower before the economy goes lower

Dennis Gartman reveals his concerns on his recent daily letter. He thinks the ending of QE could be one factor for the markets to turn lower.

"At any rate, the markets are beginning to understand that the experiments with QE have either wholly ended in the case of the US or are being considered for ending in the case of Europe. Markets discount the future and begin to turn higher during the depths of recessions in anticipation of the inevitable and eventual turn for the better by the economy in question AND markets turn lower rather far ahead of the inevitable and eventually turn for worse for the same economy."

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

The psychology is changing for the consumer | Bear Market globally

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Topics discussed include

-Trade Tariffs 

-Automobile purchases by US consumers could change 

-Global Bear market - We are Five months into a bear market.

-China:  "We buy a lot of goods from China. They give us goods and we give them American paper in return. To me that looks like a pretty good trade."

Monday, April 23, 2018

The Bull Market in stocks is over | Inflation in commodity markets

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"........The Stock market is overbought and likely to head lower over the next six months, a year, two years rather markedly lower"

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Market rallied yesterday due to over-sold conditions

Dennis Gartman reaffirms that we are in a Bear market. He notes the volume and other indicators that suggest the top has already been made. 

The volume is still following the trend; that is, volume rises as prices fall and falls as prices rise. 
To that end, we are remaining short of the equity market here in the US with stops on our positions drawn down materially to make certain that our once material profits are not turned into losses, but we are otherwise holding to our thesis that stocks have entered into a global bear market; that the high made by our International Index on January 29th shall not be violated and that the proper course of action by those who are long of equities is certainly to avail themselves of this opportunity to reduce the exposure one more time before that opportunity is lost. 
Nothing has changed fundamentally that caused us to become bearish of equities, for the P/e multiples remain egregiously over-extended, as do P/book value multiples. However, most importantly of all, the monetary authorities, whose aggressive additions of reserves to the world’s banking system created the bull market initially, are changing their course of action. Rather than adding reserves to the systems they are now in the process of withdrawing them at a time when the demand for capital on the part of plant/equipment and labor is high and is rising. That was our thesis when we issued our WATERSHED report on the 14th of this month and that remains our thesis this morning. 

via zerohedge

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

This is not the time to buy the weakness in stocks

Dennis Gartman is predicting a "watershed" moment and says the stock market has peaked. He thinks this is a "multiyear top on the equity markets following the recent volatility and following the reversals to the downside that took place yesterday in the Dow Industrials; the Nasdaq; the S&P and the Russell 2000.”

He writes stating his bearishness, "It is time to hold cash; it is time to sell rallies; it is time not to buy weakness. We can trade other things bullishly, but equities we’ll not and as the markets rally this morning we shall watch from the sidelines."

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Stock markets headed lower | Buyer of Grains on any weakness

Stock Market - [This rally] is a dead cat bounce. We are headed lower. We have seen the highs.

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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Gold acting well but unclear if in a Bull market

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"I would say it’s a bullish market for gold...I wouldn’t go on a limb and say it’s a bull market. Spot gold getting upward through $1,328-$1,330 [an ounce] would be impressive, we’ll see if it can do that. Right now, it seems to want to do that. Gold made its low in late 2015 and we have not made new lows and new highs, which is a bit disconcerting."

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

We could see 4% on bonds within 18 months

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"I wouldn’t want to tie my money up for 3% for the next 30 years. There are wonderful little enterprises, wonderful little equities [and] wonderful ETFs that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange that yield 7%, 8%, 9% with a short-term duration. I think that people have to take some scrutiny as to what’s going on and take some defensive actions. I think otherwise they’d be ill advised and I think they’d be upset six months to a year from now."

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Possible Bear Market warning

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Key Points discussed

-Might be the start of a bear market. Reduce exposure and be less involved in the equities market.

-The public is always late to the game.

-Monetary authorities reducing money in the system.

-Could see the markets 15 percent to 20 percent lower from its recent market highs.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Bitcoin is nonsense. Please avoid it. It will end in tears.

Dennis Gartman thinks Blockchain will be useful but is pessimistic on Bitcoin. 

Watch above video or click here if it does not play.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Bonds entering multidecade bear market

Are we headed into a long term Bond bear market ? 

"I do think we've ended the 35-year bull market, and people don't want to recognize the fact that the bear market began almost 16 or 17 months ago, in June 2016, when bond futures made their high and bond yields made their low. 

Bond futures prices continue to make lower lows and lower highs since early summer 2016. We’ve entered into what's going to be a protracted decade- or multidecade-long bear market in bonds. 

Even if you feel you've missed the first year and a half, it's still early. Bond yields are going to go higher for years into the future. But during these first years of rising rates, they’ll rise at a very slow pace."

via etf.com

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Gartman predicts a slow Gold bull market

Gartman makes the case for a bull market in Gold
"It’s important to understand that inflation is beginning to show up in the commodity markets in general. We’ve begun a multiyear rise in commodity prices. That probably means we're going to see a multiyear rise in gold values. But just like I told you that bond yields are going to rise rather slowly during the next few years, so too will commodity prices rise rather slowly in these first years of a new bull market. It'll be a long time before we see things move parabolically higher."

via etf.com

Monday, January 22, 2018

Less regulations and cutting taxes are going to help the stock market

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Summary of topics discussed
- Consumer sentiment is very strong

- You have strength in US, Europe, Africa, Asia. The synchronicity is really clearly impressive. 

- Tax cuts are a benefit. We are cutting regulations and taxes. Even countries like France are cutting regulations.

- Earnings are going to be expansionary next year.

- Lets hope we dont have a trade war. China has no choice but to support North Korea. 

- Stock markets are melting up and likely to continue higher.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Markets may continue to rally

"Price to earnings multiples are extremely exaggerated. Price to value multiples are extremely exaggerated. The psychology is extremely exaggerated. I have found the market to be overbought for a long period of time."

"Let’s be quite honest, it has been a bull market, it continues to be a bull market and… it will continue to be a bull market until it stops. It is not unusual to see interest rates rise and stock prices to go higher and we are in that environment. The economy is doing well and that’s going to drive interest rates higher for the next several years, I think, and we may very well see stock prices continue."

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Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Bitcoin will end badly | Commodities cheap compared to Equities

"We now begun a bull market in commodities. Gold is probably going to do well. On balance you want to be a buyer of Commodities." 

"NAFTA has been a creator of jobs in Canada, in Mexico and in the United States. Mexico and Canada are our two largest trading partners. To turn our backs upon them would be I think a very, very bad decision."

via CNBC

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Gartman 2018 predictions for Gold, bitcoin, Platinum, Crude Oil, Grains, Wheat

"If I had to bet on only one commodity for 2018, it would be on Wheat"

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