Tuesday, December 24, 2019

How Gartman approaches Trading. Gartman has been trading for 35 years

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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Dennis Gartman on what we can expect in terms of Fed policy in the short term

Dennis Gartman on what we can expect in terms of Fed policy in the short term. 

At best we will get another ease. We wont get a tightening for a long period of time in the future. Inflation is simply not strong enough to entice the fed to tighten. So we will either be on hold or it will be easing for the next six months. 

via Bloomberg daybreak

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The market is very overbought but its still a bull market

The US stock market Indexes are making new highs. Dennis Gartman thinks the markets are overbought but they could still yet go higher.

The economic data, specially the employment numbers on Friday was clearly very good. All things being equal, the Fed is clearly not going to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. As long as that policy continues and the economy continues to do well, the bull market remains in place. It surprises me, it actually shocks me, but  nonetheless it is the reality and every-time you try to sell it short, you find yourself scrambling to rush to cover. 

via Bloomberg Daybreak

Monday, September 9, 2019

Dennis Gartman gives his take on QE, Gold and Silver

Dennis Gartman reflects his thoughts on QE and Precious metals such as Gold/Silver.

Money Printing
"The monetary authorities in Europe and Asia….  and eventually too here in the US… have no choice but to err upon the side of expansion and they haven’t any choice but to bring QE back and bring it back in size and duration."

"Certainly we are happy to see spot gold remaining at or near the psychologically important $1500/oz level and we’d of course preferred to see Euro-denominated gold trading above EUR 1360/oz… nothing untoward has been done to the charts in either case and so we sit tight, acknowledging the appropriate nature of the current consolidation and waiting patiently for it to run its course."

Gold ETF's
"Regarding the ETFs… which are so very important to the precious metals…GLD yesterday added 6.74 tonnes to its gold holdings and they are now to a level not seen since late May of last year."

Gold Silver Ratio
“Silver does seem to have taken the lead from gold as the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) has stabilized at or near to 88:1. We tend rarely if ever to trade silver here at The Gartman Letter (TGL) given its volatile nature, but a weakening GSR is truly one of the hallmarks of a precious metals’ bull market.”

via kitco.com/news/2019-08-22/Gold-Ahead-of-Jackson-Hole-Dennis-Gartman.html

Thursday, July 11, 2019

I own a fair amount of Gold and have owned Gold for several years

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"Owning Bonds and Gold seems to be the proper place to be" according to Dennis Gartman

Monday, June 3, 2019

Crude Oil Monthly reversal to the downside in May 2019

Dennis Gartman points to the collapse in Crude Oil prices 

"CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE SIMPLY AND VIOLENTLY PLUNGED and there is nothing else that one can say and there seems to be no support whatsoever. Most bearish of all, with the low close on Friday the market here in the States finished out that most ominous of technical signals: a “monthly reversal” to the downside."

via twitter, zerohedge

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Unicorn IPO's with large losses

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Owning Gold in Euro terms is the Trade of the Year

"I'm bullish of Gold but not in US Dollar terms. Because I'm actually quite bullish of the US Dollar.  I've been bullish of Gold however in Euro terms. Given the fact, the US Federal Reserve bank has moved from being contractionary to atleast modest or somewhat expansionary; that has given cover to the ECB to continued being expansionary in its policies. I think that leads to a weaker Euro. I think that leads to higher inflation and I think that owning Gold in Euro terms is the Trade of the Year."

via Bloomberg Radio

Monday, April 8, 2019

One should be concerned

"Be very very careful on being long of the Equity markets at this point. We actually entered a global bear market last January. We actually been in a global bear market for a year. I'm very worried about where the US economy is... and very concerned where the US stock market is. The best place to be is in the Bond market and the Worst place to be is in the Equity Markets. I hope that I am clear."

via bloomberg radio

Monday, March 18, 2019

Recession is still some 6 months or 9 months in the future

"Well the economy is still quite strong. And you had the supply of reserves.... The Adjusted monetary base still in excess of $4.3 Trillion. So clearly there is a lot of money in the system. And the economy has been doing quite well and will probably continue to do well. But economies and the Stock prices can diverge as we saw at the bottom of 2009 as the economy was still going in the dinger and stock prices were coming up very sharply from the lows."

via Bloomberg Daybreak Radio

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

China government cut in Bank reserve requirements and tax cuts

Dennis Gartman is bullish stocks in the long term and one of the reasons he is feeling bullish is because of China.

"We continue to view the Chinese government’s cut in bank reserve requirements and the tax cuts announced nearly five weeks ago are materially long term supportive of shares in China and eventually to the markets abroad. As we have said previously several times, reserve requirement changes are the monetary authorities’ equivalents of a handy piece of lumber applied to the head of a reluctant mule: It does indeed get the mule’s attention and sometimes the mule even likes it!"

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Fracking is an amazing technology helping US produce large amounts of crude oil

Dennis Gartman on the Fracking industry

Fracking gets a bad name. It has changed. Ten or Fifteen years ago, wildcatters were lucky if 50% of their drilling hit crude oil. Now it’s 95%. It’s astonishing. Now, instead of a rig sending down one pipe to look for crude oil, it sends down that pipe and then bends it into 16 different directions for miles. It’s called horizontal drilling. We are sucking crude oil out of the fingertips of reserves in the ground that 10 years ago we couldn’t get to. It’s just amazing what’s going on.

Look at the number of drilling rigs on the Pennsylvania-New York border. New York does not allow you to drill for crude oil or natural gas, even though it has one of the biggest reserves in the U.S., the Marcellus shale. It’s a rock formation that’s frackable. There are hundreds of drilling rigs on the Pennsylvania-New York border. Each one of them says they are not drilling into New York. Bull. Of course they are.

Pay attention to crude oil prices. The United States is now the largest producer of crude oil in the world, surpassing the Russians and the Saudi Arabians last year. The probability of crude oil rallying much beyond $60 a barrel is slim. It could fall from those levels. The cost of running your machinery is not going to go higher, and it could go lower.

Until four years ago, driving miles in the U.S. went up at a consistent pace since 1947. Now the trend line is falling. There is no question people are driving less. It’s Uber and Amazon and Netflix. People are staying home. It is an amazing phenomenon that is not going to change. Fuel prices probably are not going to get any higher.

via SuccessfulFarming

Monday, February 4, 2019

Commodities could see 15 to 30 percent price gains over the next year

Commodities are very cheap relative to other asset classes and this could be a buying opportunity according to Gartman.

The relative cheapness of commodity prices to almost any other asset in the world, including real estate, equity prices, and the debt market. Commodities are extraordinary inexpensive. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices are as cheap as they are going to get. They could get 15% to 30% higher over the course of the next year. I think that is reasonable, rational, and really quite likely. I put my money where my mouth is. I am the chairman of the University of Akron’s endowment committee and I am making sure we are moving more of our assets out of the equity markets and into commodities in general.

via Successful Farming

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

What could cause a recession in 2019

Dennis Gartman on whether we could see a recession in 2019

If we put into effect greater tariffs(on China), there is no question we will have a recession. If we do away with the tariff fears, the economy will probably expand.

It also depends upon what the Federal Reserve does. I focus on the Fed’s assets. The Fed began adding to its balance sheet, called quantitative easing, in 2007. It bought treasury securities from the treasury, writing checks to itself, which is what central banks can do. From 2008 to 2015, the Fed expanded the adjusted monetary base from $800 billion to $4.3 trillion.

Sooner or later, those assets have to be run down. You can’t continue to expand the supply of reserves that fast. The Fed is now in the process of allowing those old treasury securities to run off. If you take your foot off the gas pedal that doesn’t stop the car from moving forward, but it slows the car. It’s frightening to the stock market, and a frightened stock market is detrimental to the economy. If the Fed begins to sell treasury securities and reduce its assets that way rather than allowing them to mature off, no question we would run into a recession.

All that said, I don’t think we are going to have a recession this year unless the president pushes through more trade tariffs (on China). If he does, no question we shall. He will blame it on the Chinese.

via Successful Farming

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Stocks want to go higher for now | Financials lead on the upside

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Topics discussed include
- No rate hikes for next Six months by Federal Reserve

- US Federal Reserve pretends not to look at the stock market but they infact do look at them

- Stocks want to go higher

- Financials lead on the upside and lead on the downside. 

- I was very bearish on the stock markets until Christmas 2018. I am bullish stocks for the first time in several months and financials are leading the way.